The question of the day for inside-the-beltway national security pundits is whether Ukraine can win the war against the unprovoked invasion by Russia. Many commentators are skeptical the Kyiv government forces can defeat Moscow’s invading army. However, in a recent opinion piece written for a prominent DC newspaper, Max Boot, a Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, boldly asserts not just that Ukraine is winning against Kremlin forces, but that “Ukraine has already won its war of independence.” At a recent economic conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin begged to disagree, saying that Russia had not and “will not lose anything.”
Claims of Victory and Actual Combat Victories
Boot’s optimism regarding Ukraine’s fortunes on the battlefield results from several factors. The failure of Russian President Putin’s plan to capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky with a Kremlin puppet in less than a week was a significant indicator that Russia would be unable to defeat Ukraine, and Moscow’s inability to capture and hold Donetsk Oblast in the Donbas was important in Boot’s thinking. An Institute for the Study of War report touted demonstrable progress in Ukraine’s counteroffensive to liberate Kherson. Putin’s giving in to pressures from the international community to allow Ukrainian grain shipments showed the limits of Russia’s geopolitical momentum. The growing impact of western sanctions on the Russian economy. Finally, Boot points to Zelensky’s extraordinarily high polling numbers among his citizens. Recently 98% of Ukrainians polled believed Kyiv’s forces would be victorious, and 91% approved of Zelensky’s performance.
Despite the optimistic journalist’s confident and brash contention Ukraine has “won its war of independence,” he modifies his point of view in the closing comments. “Ukraine can prevail only if it continues to receive substantial Western aid, and it needs even more assistance (fighter aircraft, long-range rockets, and tanks) to complete the liberation of its soil,” Boot admits. Instead of giving the impression Ukraine has won and all that’s left is the high fiving, there are conditions necessary for Zelensky’s courageous fighting forces to persevere and, hopefully, prevail.
Most military experts looking at the battle rhythm see modest gains in counteroffensives, but Kyiv forces have lost a large amount of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Particularly devastating was the loss of Mariupol with its heavy manufacturing and Sea of Azov port facilities. Nonetheless, many military experts believe that, with continued assistance from the US and its NATO allies, Ukraine can make substantial gains against Moscow’s invading troops. As Kyiv continues its struggle, “Ukraine’s international partners have the ability to reverse these dynamics to enable Ukraine to retake its lost territory,” the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies concluded in a recently published study. The takeaway from the analysis is that Ukraine cannot be victorious by going it alone.
Heavy Russian Losses May Not Deter Putin
It can be said the dynamic flow of fighting on Ukraine’s battlefields has resulted in heavy losses for the Russians. Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, told a Pentagon press briefing in early August,
“You know, precise figures, there’s a lot of fog in war, but, you know, I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months…which is pretty remarkable considering that the Russians have achieved none of Vladimir Putin’s objectives at the beginning of the war.”
Vladimir Putin (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images)
The question is whether President Putin can sustain the current attrition rate of soldiers and equipment. However, pundits should not underestimate the Russian president’s zeal for what he embraces as a quasi-religious crusade to reestablish a greater zone of influence. That zone, of course, includes all of Ukraine. As necessary – in many respects, more so – is if Ukraine can only sustain its momentum in recovering lost territory with critical assistance from the US and NATO, how long will the appetite for supporting the Kyiv government last? Max Boot may call what’s going on in Ukraine a win, but his views prove more aspirational than actual. Furthermore, the thought of throwing money and equipment at a stalemated war of attrition with no winnable objective in sight for Ukraine will discourage NATO nations, slowing the flow of weapons. Americans who favor quick wins will soon weary as well.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
