At the first post-election meeting of our Liberty Nation News team, it was appropriate that the first and immediate answer to the big burning question was undoubtedly the same among the professionals here as in discussions among voters of all stripes across the land. The question was, in the wake of the GOP meltdown in the 2026 midterms, what comes next? The immediate response: 2028. Indeed, we all know a significant change of direction is coming on Capitol Hill, investigations and impeachment are on the docket, and the next presidential election is still two years away. But 2028 is already weighing on the minds of not just political insiders on both sides but rank-and-file Americans.
Republican voters are busy trying to figure out how to stanch the bleeding and just how badly their shellacking will affect their chances in two years. Democratic voters likely fear the expected and typical overreach of their party after such a stunning victory on Nov. 3. They know the infusion of multiple socialists and far-left progressives into their ranks could lead to a fiasco like 2024, when the party was severely punished and stripped of all power. And they might rightfully fear the certainty of a wide-open primary like 2020, when a parade of not-ready-for-prime-time candidates flung around one radical idea after another. We will discuss the dozen or more Democratic hopefuls for 2028 on another day, but front and center now is how the severity of the GOP defeat has altered calculations about the presidential race on the right.
The Biggest Loser Among Election Losers
The primary loser in the GOP beatdown is bound to be Vice President JD Vance, who was seen as the clear front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination on Nov. 2 of this year. On Nov. 4, not so much. At the same time, if President Donald Trump manages to end the war successfully, the economy continues its robust growth, and gas prices fall to normal levels, Vance would be the beneficiary. The popularity from here to the finish line of the 47th president will affect Vance’s chances to become number 48 more than any other potential candidate.
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One way or the other, a common belief in political circles that has emerged since the election is that the Republican presidential field will no longer be as set in stone as it once was. It is hard to deny that, since his short career in politics is tied almost exclusively to Trump, Vance is on shakier ground than ever, since he didn't support the Iran war, by all accounts, but went along with it, and then denounced it the day after the election. The VP’s perceived disloyalty or duplicity is turning off some Republicans, while independents, 40% of the electorate, are perhaps wondering about his judgment.
That brings us to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who unlike the vice president has somehow sidestepped the plunging popularity of the president to stand as a towering figure on the world stage, as he has this week at the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris. We might expect to see early presidential polls reflecting a bump for Rubio and a drop for Vance. Rubio said shortly after Trump took office that he would not run if Vance, his good friend, was in the race. But things are known to change quickly in politics, and if a groundswell of Republicans is urging him to run, whether Vance is in the race or not, he might just succumb to the movement.
Remember that Rubio sought the presidency aggressively in 2016 and might have won were it not for the sudden emergence of Trump. First-rate politicians like Rubio do not give up presidential aspirations easily, especially at 55 years old, arguably the optimal age for a new president. Unlike Vance, the secretary of state and National Security Advisor had a long and successful career in the Senate. He is still highly respected by both sides, as evidenced by his near-unanimous confirmation to lead State in a bitterly partisan climate.
The Biggest Winner Among Election Losers
The man who came out smelling closest to a rose in the Republican fiasco is the outgoing governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who held back the blue tide and helped secure rare GOP victories in the Sunshine State’s Senate and gubernatorial races. There was some scattered talk of DeSantis entering the fray for 2028 over the last couple of years despite his less-than-stellar presidential campaign in 2024, which failed after Trump took dead aim at him, just as he did against Rubio in 2016. But the talk of DeSantis for president has now grown into something approaching a crescendo in some circles.
Then there's Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who famously finished second to Trump in 2016. He has made no secret of his ambition to be president and might feel emboldened to run and inject bedrock conservative principles into the campaign in 2028. He would position himself as a true conservative, as opposed to Vance the populist and Rubio the hawk heavily invested in the Iran war and thus a throwback to the days of neoconservatism widely rejected by Republican voters in the last three presidential elections.
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More than a few voters in Virginia wished that their highly esteemed former governor, Glenn Youngkin, would run again for his old job, since Virginia law prohibits back-to-back gubernatorial terms but does not disallow nonconsecutive terms. But many of those same people have expressed a desire for Youngkin to enter the presidential race in 2028. With the field now more wide open than at any time since Trump returned to the White House, one would think Youngkin is taking a more serious look at the prospect. He would undoubtedly attract considerable attention and funding. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Donald Trump Jr., and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have had their names bandied about as potential presidential candidates, though none of them has given any indication of presidential aspirations for 2028.
When voters stormed the polls and sent a message of severe displeasure with the passage of Obamacare in 2010, winning even more seats than the Democrats in 2026, the 44th president bounced back and won an easy victory in 2012. In 1994, voters upset with President Bill Clinton's botched attempt to fix health care gave the Republicans an historic victory, but two years later, Clinton was easily re-elected. Of course, this time around, there is no Republican incumbent on the ballot in 2028, so that begs the question of whether an open seat will be better for Republicans or Democrats. We’ll examine the Democratic field shortly on the pages of Liberty Nation, but one thing's for sure in the wake of 2026 midterms: The Republican presidential field will be far more wide open than we figured entering Election Day.
