Big-box media would like you to believe that populism is "on the ballot" in today’s closely watched Polish elections. That is to imply that voters will either avidly accept or decisively reject it. This is not what is going on in Europe today. A better way to put it is that an ongoing wave is continuing its rhythmic tidal surge over the rickety boat of a deeply unpopular establishment, and the only question that remains is when a tipping point is reached.
In the first round of Poland’s presidential elections on May 18, conservative Law and Justice Party candidate Karol Nawrocki fell narrowly short of finishing first outright. Progressive Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate backed by the ruling Civic Platform Party, took 31.36% of the vote, with Nawrocki right behind him at 29.54%.
Different Country, Same Problems
Poland’s foreign population has grown “from roughly 200,000 in 2015 to an estimated two million in 2019 and around 2.5 million today (some sources suggest that the number might be above three million, factoring for undocumented residents),” news site Notes From Poland reported in April. The entire population of Poland is some 36 million people, meaning if the true figure is indeed more than three million, foreigners would make up almost 10% of residents.
Crimes committed by foreigners have grown, as well. “The number of foreign nationals charged with criminal offenses rose from 2,530 in 2015 to 7,774 in 2019, peaked at 17,294 in 2023, then dropped slightly to 16,437 in 2024,” the outlet relates. And just like the US with Venezuelan and El Salvadoran criminal gangs, Poland is plagued by foreign criminal gangs, mainly from the troubled nation of Georgia.
In another development familiar to Americans, the Polish are dealing with a dire housing affordability crisis. “Poland has recorded the highest annual rise in housing prices in the European Union for the third quarter running, new data from Eurostat show,” Notes From Poland reported in October. “Prices rose by 17.7% year-on-year in Poland in the second quarter of [2024].”
As a result of all this, young Polish voters are increasingly tuning out not only the ruling Civic Platform Party but its established conservative opponents in the Law and Justice Party as well.
According to exit polling after the first round of voting on May 18, “among voters aged 18 to 29, Slawomir Mentzen of the [nationalist right] Confederation (Konfederacja) party came first, with 34.8% of the vote, while Adrian Zandberg of the left-wing Together (Razem) party was second, with 18.7%,” Notes From Poland details.
That means a majority of young voters rejected the two main political parties dominating Polish politics today.
“There are some voters who are just looking around for whoever is the best challenger to the duopoly, to the established political parties,” Aleks Szczerbiak, professor of politics at the University of Sussex, told the news site. “And they are more likely to be among younger voters.”
Populism as the New Established Alternative
In Romania, meanwhile, pro-European Union establishment candidate Nicusor Dan on May 18 celebrated a surprise triumph in the second round of presidential voting after he was resoundingly thrashed in the first round by populist right candidate George Simion and now has the exceedingly difficult task of trying to form a new government.
The shocking result was itself a source of controversy, with allegations of voter fraud. Even as they claim victory, pro-EU forces realize opposition to their agenda among Romanians is widespread. “Simion still won more than five million votes, or around 46 percent, which highlighted a deep fracture in Romanian society,” French state broadcaster France 24 glumly observed.
Moving to the west coast of Europe, Portugal’s nationalist right Chega Party has become the leading opposition to the ruling Democratic Alliance coalition.
“Chega’s new role as the country’s main opposition party confirms the far right’s remarkable growth in Portugal,” progressive ruling establishment news organ Politico writes in the customary biased style of the dominant press. “In six years, the ultranationalist party has gone from having just one lawmaker in parliament to now controlling more than a quarter of the seats in the country’s legislative body.”
Golly, Politico, what’s leading the people of Portugal into the arms of this dangerous “ultranationalism”?
“Portuguese voters responded enthusiastically to a far-right campaign that depicted mainstream parties as being corrupt and incapable of addressing challenges that include chronically low wages, the housing crisis and increased immigration,” the outlet states.
Funny how these storylines just keep repeating themselves from one nation to the next.
In a tumultuous Britain, populist firebrand Nigel Farage has declared his Reform UK Party to be the official opposition to the ruling Labour government.
Farage has publicly eulogized the longstanding Conservative Party as a political corpse, saying it has “ceased to be a national party” and is “now an irrelevance.” It wasn’t just empty verbiage.
“The bullish remarks come off the back of [May’s] local election results, where the Reform party won 677 seats – largely at the expense of the Tories, who lost 674,” London’s City AM news site reports.
The Conservative Party “had a good 200 years, it is now finished,” Farage exclaimed.
What is leading UK voters away from the old established liberal or conservative, pick one only option?
Here’s a three-step clue.
A one: “Benefits claims by refugee households [in the UK] have increased by 33 percent in a year, reaching £1.1 billion in 2024, government figures show,” British TV channel GB News reported on May 2. “This marks the first time such claims have passed the £1 billion threshold, rising from £828 million in 2023.”
And a two: “Two-thirds (67%) of British adults believe the total number of people entering the UK is too high,” a new survey from global polling firm Ipsos has found. The poll was taken from May 16-20.
And a three: “Reform UK enjoys the highest level of trust when it comes to having the right immigration policies (37%), handling migrant crossings of the English Channel (39%), and making illegal entry more difficult (42%),” Ipsos found. “Around 1 in 4 trust Labour and the Liberal Democrats on these issues, while the Conservatives rank last on all three measures.”
Whether they manage to hang on a little longer or not, the established forces of trans-nationalism still ruling most nations in Europe are standing on a precariously shifting fault line, and the political earthquake is long overdue.
