Democrats Dream Big in Red States

With less than a week remaining until Election Day, Democrats look poised to retake the House of Representatives and are hoping to snag the upper chamber, too, but that will be a more difficult feat. They need to pick up four seats to gain a Senate majority, and the battle is mostly taking place in GOP territory. Of the seven states Cook Political Report ranks as toss-ups, President Donald Trump won six in 2024 – five by double digits. Liberty Nation News’ polling aggregator shows Democrats holding narrow leads in six of these races, most within the margin of error, making it difficult to predict which party might prevail on November 3. Here’s where each toss-up race stands.

Alaska

A lot of drama is unfolding in the Last Frontier. Former Rep. Mary Peltola faces two Dan Sullivans: the incumbent and an alleged decoy. The DOJ recently filed a lawsuit to stop Alaska from automatically certifying the results of its Senate election if the Republican incumbent narrowly loses, claiming Sullivan #2 is only running to sow confusion and divert votes away from the GOP senator. Though the challenger has said his decision to run was his own and not intended to disrupt the election, a New York Times exclusive published on Oct. 28 revealed that Peltola’s campaign staff worked with “people trying to recruit Mr. Sullivan to run for Senate” and tried to “coax other would-be spoilers into the race, to dilute the incumbent’s support and help catapult the Democrat to victory.” Trump is calling for Peltola to be criminally charged and leave the race.

A fourth candidate is also on the ballot, a long-shot Republican named Gerald Heikes who advanced after the Democrat who finished fourth in the primary withdrew. A super PAC spent heavily promoting Heikes in an apparent bid to peel votes from the incumbent. The second Sullivan hasn’t topped five points in the polls, and LNN’s average shows Peltola leading the incumbent by nearly two points in first-choice support. But Alaska’s ranked-choice system could narrow that edge. If the two minor candidates are eliminated, their supporters’ ballots move to their next choice, and many may rank the incumbent second.

Iowa

Iowa was once a swing state, but by 2024, it was considered safely Republican, with GOP supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Barack Obama won the state twice, then Trump carried it three times, winning by 13 points in 2024. Now, Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist, is hoping to add some blue back to the Hawkeye State. He faces Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former newscaster, in a contest to replace two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

While rallying Republicans in Sioux City on Oct. 22, Trump told the crowd that Ashley Hinson is “a mother, a warrior, a patriot and she will never let far-left maniacs push the radical left insanity on Iowa’s children.” Hinson is a three-term representative who beat an incumbent in 2020. LNN’s average shows her tied with Turek. The last time a Democrat was elected to the US Senate in Iowa was 2008.

Kansas

In a race neither party expected to be competitive, Adam Hamilton, a Democrat and pastor, is challenging Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Hamilton is a self-described moderate, though some Republicans have disputed that claim. Marshall, a former OB-GYN, has faced scrutiny because he reportedly sued hundreds of former patients over unpaid medical bills.

As with much of Middle America, frustration over rising costs of fuel and fertilizer is likely weighing heavily on Kansas voters’ minds ahead of November 3. Hamilton has less than a one-point advantage over Marshall in Liberty Nation’s polling aggregator. Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot, and he could snag enough support to tilt the race. No Democrat has won a US Senate seat in Kansas since 1932.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in Vacationland. Democrats thought they might defeat her in 2020, only to have Collins win by nine points despite Joe Biden carrying the state. Now, Democrat Troy Jackson appears to have a shot at ousting the incumbent after the initial Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, dropped his bid following an allegation of sexual assault, which he denied. Polls over the last month have found Jackson leading by single digits or tied with Collins. LNN’s average shows the Democrat ahead by fewer than two points. Collins, however, has name recognition and a long record of serving Maine.

Michigan

The Wolverine State might be one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, is facing former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed has drawn a lot of backlash over his criticism of Israel and his friendly relationship with progressive streamer Hasan Piker, who once claimed America “deserved 9/11.”

El-Sayed, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), has recently gained more support from traditional Democrats, even stumping with former President Barack Obama. Trump and the vice president have each visited the Wolverine State to campaign for Rogers. NBC News’ Decision Desk shows about 1.55 million people have cast ballots so far in the state: 53% Democrats and 38% Republicans, according to the outlet’s estimate. A survey released this week by Mitchell Research & Communications showed El-Sayed ahead by 7 points, but his average lead remains within the margin of error. Michigan has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 1994.

Ohio

In Ohio, a state Trump won by 11 points in 2024, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who became a senator after Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him to fill Vice President JD Vance’s seat. Brown spent 18 years in the Senate but lost a re-election bid in 2024. He has poured millions of dollars into ads attacking Husted over health care, energy bills, and tax breaks for data centers, an issue that could be a deciding factor in the race. A new survey from Suffolk University shows Brown leading Husted by three points among likely voters. The former senator leads by nearly three points in LNN’s average.

Texas

Once again, Democrats believe this is the year Texas turns blue. The last time a Democrat appeared to have a chance in Texas was in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke faced GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. O’Rourke rarely led in the polls, but he lost by only 2.6 points. State Rep. James Talarico has led his Republican opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, in almost every poll released this month, with a three-point lead in LNN’s average.

In a press release announcing a new ad in September, Paxton criticized Talarico, claiming the Democrat’s “views are an insult to millions of faithful Texans, and it’s time for his extremist views to be exposed.” Paxton has been involved in a handful of scandals, including securities fraud charges (later dismissed), and he was impeached in 2023 by the Texas House of Representatives, though the state Senate later acquitted him.

Nearly 5.5 million registered voters have cast ballots so far in the Lone Star State, just under 30% of the electorate, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk.  

Will Democrats Get the Last Word?

In total, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs this cycle, but these seven will be vital in determining who controls the upper chamber in 2027. Another race to watch is South Carolina, which is increasingly looking like a toss-up. Though most forecasters rank it as leaning Republican, a Siena poll for The New York Times released on Oct. 28 showed Darline Graham Nordone – who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham – tied with pediatrician Annie Andrews.

However these races unfold, this election cycle appears to be expanding the map in ways that could stretch beyond 2026 – unless, of course, all this blue-wave talk is just a polling mirage.