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With just six days until the midterm elections, the balance of power in Washington, DC, is far from settled business. While Democrats appear confident they can take the House and maybe flip the Senate, the GOP pushback is ramping up, and the bevy of available data suggests it will be closer than the headlines proclaim. But there are overlooked aspects that could still impact the electoral math, and the devil is, as ever, in the details.
Danger in the House
Historic trends suggest that the GOP is going to lose seats in the House of Representatives. In fact, only three presidents have grown their lower chamber caucus in the last 100 years: Franklin Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002. So, expecting President Donald Trump to avoid the loss of at least one chamber of Congress – especially when he has just a 37% approval rating – is an unlikely scenario. The big question then becomes just how many seats Democrats might win. And there’s peril in the numbers.
Mid-decade gerrymandering in red and blue states has upset the electoral math in unexpected ways. While a plain reading would suggest Republicans can pick up a net of between eight and twelve extra seats, there is evidence to suggest a certain amount of backlash to the whole process. But a more immediate concern for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) in his quest for the gavel is that his party wins but only by a small margin.
The growing lobby of openly socialist candidates who could take office in January is a thorn in the side of prospective Speaker Jeffries. If Democrats have a net gain of 15 to 20 seats this cycle, he’s in the clear. If that figure is lower, however, it’s a sign of trouble.
Jeffries would be held hostage to the Democratic Socialists of America agenda in terms of bringing bills to floor votes, committee assignments, and even mustering support for the most basic of spending packages. Any concessions he makes will be ammunition for the GOP come 2028. And any stalemates resulting from holding out against the socialist faction will be easy to lay at the feet of his party.
In some ways, Democrats might be better off failing to take the House than taking it with a razor-thin majority.
Senate Stakes
The future of the upper chamber is just as precarious. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to overcome the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance. Betting markets suggest a 67% chance of flipping the Senate; the Cook Political Report rates seven states as toss-ups – notably, Democrats have a polling lead in five. But that doesn’t mean it’s a done deal.
While Trump is not on the ballot this cycle, the midterms are very much a referendum on his presidency. The commander-in-chief is currently crisscrossing the nation, holding dozens of rallies to bolster candidates. With that in mind, it’s worth looking at the undercounts that have taken place when he is facing the electorate.
Across 2016, 2020, and 2024, the average polling undercount of Trump support was roughly two and a half points. That may not seem like much, but when you consider that at least half of the Cook toss-ups fall within that range, it takes on more significance. And then there’s the fact that Republicans and independents are less likely to engage with pollsters; it all adds up to an unpredictable outcome.
Additionally, all seven toss-ups are within a standard margin of error. Any pundit who states the results are a foregone conclusion is missing the bigger picture.
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