While most of the world focuses on the armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions are growing in the South China Sea. In what is becoming an almost daily occurrence, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) coast guard cutters harass and collide with Philippine ships attempting to resupply islands Manila holds as sovereign territory. Clashes between the two countries have increased in intensity most recently, and the US could find itself in the middle.
Confrontations in the South China Sea
The PRC has become something of a bully to its neighbors, and this aggressiveness is no more apparent than in its persistent conflict with the Philippines in the South China Sea. Despite what many thought might be reconciliation between Beijing and Manila with an exchange of diplomatic memoranda at the end of July, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Chinese Coast Guard did not pause or abate any of its harassment of Philippine commercial resupply ships or coast guard vessels. The Associated Press described the latest confrontation:
“China and the Philippines accused each other of causing a collision between their two vessels Saturday [Aug. 31] in the latest flare up of tensions over disputed waters and maritime features in the South China Sea…Philippine officials in Manila said it was their coast guard ship, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, that was rammed thrice by the Chinese coast guard without any provocation, causing damage to the Philippine vessel.”
This recent ramming incident was the second in just a few days and took place 85 miles west of Palawan, a Philippine region in the South China Sea. The confrontation occurred in the “internationally recognized exclusive economic zone of the Philippines,” the AP reported.
Lately, there has been a spate of confrontations between PRC maritime vessels and Philippine resupply ships. A spokesman for the Philippine government explained: “Eight PRC vessels engaged in ‘aggressive and dangerous maneuvers’ around the Philippine BFAR vessel BRP Datu Sanday as it traveled between Half-Moon Shoal and Sabina Shoal to resupply Philippine fishermen with fuel, food, and medical supplies on August 25,” according to an Institute for the Study of War dispatch.
China’s hubris knows no bounds in claiming nearly all of the South China Sea as its territory. The assertion of sovereignty by Beijing has never been recognized by international regulatory or ruling authorities. Just the opposite has been the case. In 2016, a UN-established Permanent Court of Arbitration said in its over 475-page finding on the disputed territories: “DECLARES that, as between the Philippines and China, China’s claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, with respect to the maritime areas of the South China Sea encompassed by the relevant part of the ‘nine-dash line’ are contrary to the Convention and without lawful effect…” The “nine-dash line” was a ridiculous outline of nearly the entire South China Sea to include all of the disputed islands, reefs, and shoals claimed by numerous countries with considerably more compelling assertions of sovereignty than China.
The United States has been firmly on the side of the Philippines and China’s other neighbors in condemning the PRC for its aggressive actions in the South China Sea. However, Beijing has not been impressed with US diplomatic intervention. As The New York Times reported after this latest case of a Chinese Coast Guard cutter deliberately colliding with the Philippine vessel, “It also comes days after the Biden administration’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, held talks with senior Chinese leaders in Beijing and raised America’s defense treaty with the Philippines.”
Mutual Defense Treaty Obligates US to Aid Philippines
The fact that the US government has a “Mutual Defense Treaty” with the Philippines, signed originally in 1951 and reaffirmed in May 2023, establishes an obligation for the US to defend the Philippines. There is no equivocation in the treaty wording. “The guidelines reaffirm that an armed attack in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea, on either of their public vessels, aircraft, or armed forces – which includes their Coast Guards – would invoke mutual defense commitments under Articles IV and V of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” according to a US Department of Defense press release. To honor that treaty, the US has made it known that it would consider escorting Philippine vessels in the disputed areas.
“The United States escorting Philippine vessels during resupply missions in the South China Sea is a ‘reasonable option," the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command said on Aug. 27. Though US Indo-Pacific Command commander Admiral Samuel Paparo explained the possibility to reporters while visiting Manila, such an operation would require consultation and agreement between the US and the Philippines. The fact that Paparo raised the escorting of Philippine resupply vessels indicates he believes such an operation is squarely in Indo-Pacific Command’s bag of options. Beijing should not dismiss the escort offer as bluster. Recent combined exercises with the US and Philippines training for conflict with the People’s Liberation Army should be a warning to Beijing.
So, while much of the world’s attention has been directed elsewhere, the South China Sea has as much potential for expanding armed conflict. Defending the Philippines may not just be defense treaty rhetoric.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
