President Donald Trump is moving quickly on different fronts to force a ceasefire in Ukraine – and there is a flicker of progress. The US has resumed its military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, following a brief suspension. Ukraine has also endorsed a ceasefire plan, though Russia has yet to agree to the terms. As has been the case with Trump’s foreign policy initiatives, there are several moving parts that often have more than a single purpose.
Conflict in Ukraine Is One of Many Priorities
When Trump paused military aid to Kyiv, many in the media saw it as placing pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to capitulate to Russia. That may be too narrow an assessment of what the US commander-in-chief has in mind, which is more expansive than the Eurocentric perspective prevalent in the last administration. As Liberty Nation News reported on Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent meeting with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group and NATO:"Hegseth said he was expressing 'directly and unambiguously' that 'stark strategic realities' keep the US 'from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.' The reason is not difficult to understand. The US has an imperative to focus on the threat to the security of its borders, and America must address a 'peer competitor in the communist Chinese,' which is capable of menacing the US homeland and [its] core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.'"This comment reveals that the US national security doctrine, as it applies to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, requires NATO's and Europe's willingness to step up to provide for their regional defense. Kyiv’s neighbors should be more supportive of efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine to end the devastating carnage of the past three-plus years. As long as that conflict continues, the United States and, by extension, Europe are distracted from the real geopolitical threats to global peace: China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
Consequently, establishing a ceasefire in Ukraine as a first step to a lasting peace is an imperative for Trump, part of his America First agenda. He is striving to end the failed "as long as it takes" and "as much of our treasure as it takes" approach that the Biden administration and Europe have been wedded to for the past three years. Trump’s near-term strategy is to engage Europe, Ukraine, and Russia on several fronts. First was the attempt to bring Zelensky into a rare-earth minerals deal for the post-hostilities economic rebuilding of Ukraine's infrastructure and war-ravaged cities and towns. Though the Ukrainian leader stumbled over his insistence on security guarantees, he has apparently come to realize that the first step toward peace is at hand.
In addition to pausing military aid to Ukraine while the national security team evaluates its impact, the United States has also let it be known that it will rely on Europe to assume greater participation in combined US-European military exercises. "While U.S. officials say planning for U.S. involvement in NATO exercises continues, there has been more focus on having European allies play a bigger role," the Stars and Stripes reported. Combined US-Allied forces military training is the most visible and effective symbol of conventional military deterrence. This message to NATO and European leaders indicates that the Trump administration expects more self-reliance on the part of Europe for its defense so the United States can confront Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.
Motivating the Kyiv Government by Pausing Support
Trump's approach to motivate Ukraine to be more cordial and seek a ceasefire was to pause the aid that would prolong the fighting. "The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) has cut off Ukraine's access to commercial satellite imagery collected by the US government, in the wake of President Donald Trump's decision to 'pause' the flow of US intelligence and military aid to Kyiv," Breaking Defense revealed. Temporarily removing this support – aided by behind-the-scenes negotiating by US representatives – has brought about a glimmer of light.
After nearly two weeks of reflection and discussions with his European counterparts, Zelensky wants to re-engage on the ceasefire and the bilateral minerals agreement. Just the News reported, "British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said [March 9] that the UK, France, and Ukraine have agreed to work together on a ceasefire plan. 'Even while Russia talks about peace, they are continuing their relentless aggression,' Starmer said at a summit on the war in Ukraine. Starmer said the agreed-upon ceasefire plan would be presented to the US." Whether Ukraine and US European allies like it or not, Trump's tactics are having the desired effect.
According to Fox News, “Ukraine on [March 11] accepted a deal put forward by the Trump administration during a meeting in Saudi Arabia, in a step forward for securing a ceasefire and an end to its war with Russia.” As Rubio explained, now the Russians must see this as a positive initiative in bringing the devastating horror in Ukraine to at least a temporary halt. There are no details on what the initial agreement entails, but that will be hashed out with the Russians.
Keeping pressure on Russia through economic sanctions must still be part of the US plan. "Trump, in a post on his Truth Social platform, said he was considering the action based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now.' He added that the prospective sanctions could remain in place until the two sides come to a ceasefire and peace settlement," the Associated Press reported. Adding to the complexity, reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveal that Russia is busy sowing dissension between the Europeans and the United States. Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service "claimed on March 10 that the UK government is prioritizing 'undermining Trump's peace efforts' and has tasked non-governmental organizations with 'demonizing' Trump," ISW explained.
If the negotiations for a ceasefire prove successful, the potential exists for Trump’s national security team to spend more time with the America First priorities. Securing the US southern border to bolster domestic safety and focusing America's national security capability to contain China in the Indo-Pacific are the goals of the Trump national security team. Limiting China's expansionist desires requires more US forces in the Indo-Pacific, moving the emphasis from Europe to the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Sea of Japan. This is Trump’s strategy.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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