Baby bust – or the decline in births – is having an economic and social impact on the United States. So far, the country has experienced a 0.12% decline from 2023, which is 12.009 births per 1,000 people. To ensure a stable population, it is estimated that women should have 2.1 children. As the older generation retires, there is concern about a lack of people to replace the workforce. Many worry about how fewer births will affect the nation, and one important area is education.
Baby Bust and Education
Public schools rely heavily on federal funding, which is determined by the number of students in the facilities. In 2009, enrollments peaked at 50.8 million, and the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) predicted that number to drop to 47 million by 2030. Furthermore, 20 states are expected to fall by more than 10% by 2031, according to NCES. Most of these are blue, with California, Hawaii, New Mexico, and New York showing some of the highest drops – 19% to 21%.
And that brings us to fertility rates. This year hit an all-time low, meaning the number of children born in 2024 will enter school by 2030, and the decline will likely continue after. The last great baby bust was in the 1970s, and it caused havoc in the education sector. With declining student populations, districts were forced to lay off teachers and close schools.
Property tax revolts started around the country, limiting funding to local schools, which forced districts to turn to state and federal governments to bolster budgets. The teachers’ unions convinced then-President Jimmy Carter to create the Department of Education in 1980 to get federal money into their coffers and reduce the number of layoffs and school closures. However, this meant the institutions were more dependent on federal funding.
Today, the right to choose a school is becoming popular for several reasons. Choice programs give parents more options and control over the type of education their children receive. They provide states with the opportunity to remain competitive by enticing families to stay instead of seeking out other states that offer such choices. Many states have already adopted programs that allow government funds or subsidies to be allocated to students’ preferred schools, including private systems. And private choice programs are a lot less expensive per child than public schools.
Declining Birth Rates and Political Reactions
Two-thirds of the global population live in countries where the fertility rate is below 2.1, the number needed to hold the population constant. Currently, the world’s populace is at 8.2 billion. In 2017, the United Nations predicted it would climb to 11.2 billion by 2100. Now, however, it says the population will peak at around 10.4 billion in 2080 and go down from there. If this happens, it will be the first global population decline since the bubonic plague in the mid-1300s. The Black Death, as it is called, killed more than 20 million people in Europe, nearly one-third of the population. “The demographic winter is coming,” Jesús Fernández-Villaverde of the University of Pennsylvania told The Wall Street Journal.
Americans, though, don’t seem worried about the baby bust. According to an exclusive opinion poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on May 1 for Newsweek, just 16% of participants said they were “very concerned,” while 42% claimed they were “not at all concerned” with low birth rates. Men were more disturbed, with 22% “very concerned,” while only 10% of women felt the same way.
Politicians seem to take the matter more seriously, and low birth rates have become an election debate topic, while both campaigns consider updating the child tax credit (CTC) to entice Americans to have more children. Under the current rule, the maximum CTC is $2,000, and only couples who make less than $400,000 per year jointly, or $200,000 for individuals, can qualify for full credit.
Republican vice-president hopeful JD Vance wants to increase the CTC to $5,000 per child and remove restrictions so all families can apply. Kamala Harris suggests a $6,000 credit per child for the first year, then $3,600 for each year after.
As birth rates continue to decline, the impact on education becomes more apparent. While some may feel unconcerned about the baby bust, its effects are already rippling through the school system, and those ripples threaten to grow larger in the years to come.
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