Late Monday, June 23, President Donald Trump announced that a phased reduction in hostilities would begin between Iran and Israel resulting in a complete end to the “12-day war” over a 24-hour period. Early signals suggest that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on board, and his Iranian counterparts have publicly noted that they also are ready for an official ceasefire. And yet, as is often the case in Middle East conflicts, ambiguity remains and a deal is never done until it's done.
"Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World," Trump explained. However, this somewhat unique framework for cessation has resulted in a protracted round of accusations form the combatants.
As the tentative ceasefire began on Tuesday morning, Israel says it intercepted two missiles from Iran. According to a CNN source, though, an Iranian spokesman said, “no missiles have been fired at the enemy so far.” Where’s the truth?
And then, to throw more fuel on the fire, it seems Israel took the window of opportunity to deal some final blows, angering the president. “We have two countries that have been fighting for so hard and so long they don’t know what the f*** they are doing,” Trump said as he prepared to leave for the upcoming NATO conference.
A Premature Victory Lap?
"CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!" Trump posted on Truth Social."Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World," Trump explained. However, this somewhat unique framework for cessation has resulted in a protracted round of accusations form the combatants.
As the tentative ceasefire began on Tuesday morning, Israel says it intercepted two missiles from Iran. According to a CNN source, though, an Iranian spokesman said, “no missiles have been fired at the enemy so far.” Where’s the truth?
And then, to throw more fuel on the fire, it seems Israel took the window of opportunity to deal some final blows, angering the president. “We have two countries that have been fighting for so hard and so long they don’t know what the f*** they are doing,” Trump said as he prepared to leave for the upcoming NATO conference.
“I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say okay now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out to the first hour, just drop everything you have on, so I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either,” he said. “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!" Trump posted.
Much discussion rests on the staged cessation, with six and 12-hour intervals for various steps to be taken. As Trump noted, the peace deal takes effect “when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions.” It seems likely that Iran and Israel are attempting to make as much military hay as possible before the deadline arrives. Indeed, such a move is important to the Iranian domestic regime in particular, that considers symbolic displays of strength as important as actual displays.Saving Face Opens Door to Peace
Yesterday, Monday June 23,Iran launched a limited retaliation against US interests by firing rockets at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar on. This base is home to roughly 10,000 stationed US troops and represents the largest contingent of American forces in the region. However, no reports of injury have been announced, and the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that it had intercepted all missiles. Was Iran having difficulty delivering its revenge, or was this a face-saving exercise that the leadership hoped will satisfy its more hardline partners? Middle East watchers may recall the US takedown of Iranian terror mastermind Gen. Qasem Soleimani by the first Trump administration in 2020. Critics of the action at the time suggested that 45 was dragging America into a bloody war. However, the response from Tehran was notably shallow. Certainly, the regime launched targeted attacks but made sure to notify all parties concerned in advance to avoid even the slightest possibility of injury or death. This latest assault on Al-Udeid Air Base appears to be in a similar vein. Qatari spokesman Majed Al Ansari posted shortly after the launches that the "State of Qatar strongly condemns the attack that targeted Al-Udeid Air Base by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. We consider this a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the State of Qatar." He added, "We reassure that Qatar’s air defenses successfully thwarted the attack and intercepted the Iranian missiles." Reports suggest that Iran even notified Western media in advance. The facts of the matter indicate that the government in Tehran was well aware that any bloodshed could lead to more than just a ratcheting up of tensions. The decision to send a limited strike that it knew would be intercepted allowed those in leadership to rattle their sabers and claim they responded with strength to strength. Indeed, this may turn out to be the only retaliatory action Iran makes in response to the destruction of its nuclear sites. What remains are what former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called the known unknowns.The Path to Pariah
The Trump administration appears to have accepted that the Iranian regime executed the smallest possible retaliation in the interests of not further angering the president. Having demonstrated to the domestic audience that Iranian leadership is not afraid to tangle with the US – albeit in a rather performative sense – it seems they are ready to de-escalate. Responding to the attack in Qatar, Trump said, "I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done… Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE." He continued:"I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured… Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"But it was likely not only US considerations that brought Iran to the table. After sending rockets into Qatari territory, Middle Eastern partners of Iran may have decided that its colleague nation went too far. Spokesman Al Ansari pointed out that the Iranian strike was a violation of Qatar airspace and insisted that his nation reserves the right to respond. Other countries in the region have closed their airspace, sending a strong signal that any more launches will be deemed unacceptable. Essentially, the Middle East is telling Tehran to knock it off and quit while you still have a country.
