A Final Gambit for the McCarthy Speakership Bid

As the 118^th Congress prepares to convene, the speakership remains in doubt. Prospective Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy late Sunday provided a number of key concessions to recalcitrant members of the Republican Party in his proposed House Rules package. But early indicators suggest it may not be enough to push him over the vote threshold for the top spot.

A Math Problem for McCarthy

McCarthy requires 218 votes to take up the gavel; reports suggest that he presently has north of 200, but nine holdouts are making demands before committing. Most notable is the reintroduction of a measure to “vacate the Chair.” This was standard House procedure until 2019 and meant that a vote to oust the speaker can be brought forward by members rather than just leadership. It was this mechanism that heralded the resignation of former GOP Speaker John Boehner in 2015 and led directly to the creation of the House Freedom Caucus – the very group that is now threatening to withhold support.

“Speaker-Designate” McCarthy’s compromise package includes allowing a “vacate the Chair” motion at the behest of five Republican lawmakers and a commitment to grant conservatives more representation on committees. He wrote, “I will use my selections on key panels to ensure they more closely reflect the ideological makeup of our conference, and will advocate for the same when it comes to the membership of standing committees. This will facilitate greater scrutiny of bills from the start so they stand a greater chance of passing in the end.”

Failed Gambit?

In response to the rules proposal laid out by the present minority leader, the group of nine GOP representatives issued a letter of their own:

“Despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3^rd.”

Led by Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA.), the disgruntled lawmakers argued that the hopeful speaker’s outreach was “missing specific commitments with respect to virtually every component of our entreaties.”

“I think what he’s trying to do is the bare minimum that he needs to try and get to where he can get the votes. And that’s not indicative of somebody that really wants to embrace new ideas, reject the status quo and unify all members in the conference,” Perry continued.

Chaos Awaits?

The last time the House failed to elect a speaker on the first ballot round was in 1923; for McCarthy to follow up a century later would likely be good fodder for Democrats and their cohorts in Big Box media. Brendan Buck – who worked directly for the last two GOP speakers, Paul Ryan and John Boehner – lamented the fallout that would damage both the party and the institution:

“Allowing the process to unravel into chaos would diminish the entire body and destroy Americans’ confidence in the new Congress. Mr. McCarthy still has time to reach an agreement with his critics, and he should do all within reason to secure the speakership on the first vote. Otherwise, a self-serving power play by a small group of Republicans threatens to make a mockery of the institution and further cement the notion that the party is not prepared to lead.”

No rules can be adopted, nor business of the House commence before a speaker is in position; this leaves McCarthy at risk of being labeled the man responsible for holding up the work of government. Successive ballots – even if he ultimately wins - are highly unlikely to be seen as a mark of leadership strength.

Democrats will be keen to exploit the fractious election for political points, even if it results in a compromise candidate. From an optics position, this is a win-win for the left. Should McCarthy prevail, he may well be weakened by the process, and if he fails, it will be an easy talking point to say that the GOP is in disarray.

Before tomorrow’s vote, McCarthy must unite the party he hopes to lead. Without a Hail Mary play, his options appear bleak. But as famed James Bond author Ian Flemming once remarked, “The game, whatever it was, had to be played out. If the change of rooms had been the opening gambit, so much the better. The game had to begin somewhere.”