With the recent Democrat impeachment farce and a host of other factors, President Donald Trump may not only win a landslide re-election in 2020, but he also has a chance of winning the popular vote, thereby fully vindicating his election in 2016 – even in the eyes of his most ardent critics.
Re-Election in 2020
The most predictive indicators of an election result all favor a Trump victory. First, he has the incumbent advantage. In 2016, many Americans likely refrained from voting for him because they were deeply skeptical of his lack of experience and feared that he would not be able to deliver on his promises.
Three years later, Trump has delivered more than anyone could reasonably expect. He finally managed to get funding for his border wall, the economy is booming and unemployment is at record low levels, he removed 20 regulations for every new one, renegotiated NAFTA and other trade deals, defeated ISIS, and moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
Under normal circumstances, these positive results would be enough for any incumbent to handily win re-election. Why change a winning formula?
The Media Smear
However, the mainstream media has successfully cast Trump as a divisive figure. More than 90% of his news coverage is negative. The “very fine people” hoax that followed the Charlottesville, Va. statue protests, the debunked Russia collusion theory, the impeachment charade, and other smears have dented his popularity and convinced many that he is a racist – and even a fascist dictator.
For a long time, the media campaign against the president worked, but the effect appears to be rapidly waning due to smear fatigue and good macroeconomic numbers. When President Richard Nixon was investigated for the Watergate scandal, the entire nation tuned in to the hearings. In the most recent impeachment debacle, most people tuned out. By the time Congress voted to impeach Trump, his poll numbers were at their highest level since his inauguration.
Even worse for the Democrats, when people are asked a question that does not include Trump directly, his approval skyrockets. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows that 80% of Americans predict their lives will be better in 2020, while only 11% thought things would be worse. The reason? A booming economy.
Most notably, 54% of Democrats predicted that their lives would be better in 2020. They may not change their vote to Trump, but their optimism and lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidates may induce millions of them to stay home on election day.
Waiting for Durham
Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on potential abuse of the FISA courts in spying on Trump was devastating, but both General Attorney William Barr and special prosecutor John Durham – who is investigating the Obama administration’s Department of Justice – has hinted that far worse news is in store for the Democrats and the deep state.
Barr indicated that Durham’s investigation might be finished by summer 2020, just a few months before the election. It is still too soon to say what will come of it, but the odds are that it will further widen the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats.
The Black Wildcard
After Trump’s victory in 2020, the Democrats pushed the narrative that Clinton was the “true” winner because she won the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes. However, there is a real chance that Trump will be able to tip the popular vote in his favor, based only on black support.
In 2016, only 8% or about 1.3 million black voters cast their ballot for Trump. A poll in 2018 and two in 2019 showed that approval of the president among likely black voters had surged to above 30%. If this translates to support at the ballot box in 2020, blacks alone could propel Trump to win the popular vote.
Therefore, don’t be surprised if Trump wins one of the most monumental Republican victories in modern times.
Read more from Onar Åm.
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