American voters were animated in 2016 by talk of building the wall. It was Donald Trump’s rallying call, one that helped launch his presidential career. When Joe Biden took the crown in January 2021, he oversaw the highest number of illegal crossings on record; it was as though Trump’s first term was entirely reversed. But the 2024 election brought number 45 back to the White House, older and wiser, and this time, it seems that there’s no turning back on immigration.
Dealing With Immigration Numbers
The number of border crossers residing in the United States remains high. Much of this is due to a backlog of processing that soared to unprecedented heights under the Biden administration. By the end of the 46th president’s term, there were an estimated 4.2 million people awaiting decisions before an immigration judge. In 2024 alone, roughly 150,000 new cases were added to the docket each month, while only 60,000 were handled. Effectively, as things stood, the backlog was never going to go away. And this suited illegal migrants just fine.
Generally, immigration cases (barring mitigating factors) are dealt with on a chronological basis, meaning someone who entered the country illegally in 2024 could expect to avoid a hearing – which could precipitate their removal – for many years, allowing time to build a life and a case that may prove compelling. Under the new Trump administration, this de facto amnesty is about to become history.
First, let’s check the stats. In June 2025, border “encounters” were 92.7% lower than in June 2024 – registering just 6,100 attempts to cross. And perhaps more importantly, the Department of Homeland Security stated, “Gotaways fell 90% compared to June 2024. And for the second month in a row, USBP [US Border Patrol] reported zero releases — reinforcing the Administration’s commitment to ending catch-and-release policies.”
How has this reduction impacted processing?
A Downward Trajectory
As of July 2025, the backlog has dropped from 4.2 million to 3.8 million. This is because cases are being dealt with at a rate of 65,000 per month, while only 29,000 new cases are being brought. At this current trajectory, even if nothing improves going forward, that number will be 2.5 million by the end of Trump’s term. However, with crossings now at a record low, there is potential for a complete clearing of the logjam.
What does this signify for the future?
When media pundits and politicians talk about a broken border system, they typically mean one of two things – depending on their political leanings. Either they mean illegal crossings are too high, or that there is no process for dealing with those who have crossed – essentially leaving border hopefuls in legal limbo.
Trump has managed to solve both issues simultaneously. By reducing the number of crossings, he has appeased the right, and the knock-on effect of processing applications at a record rate removes the legal uncertainty that has so enraged the left. This doesn’t mean that either side is completely happy – after all, many who finally make it in front of a judge may be granted permission to remain, but it does show that controlled borders are not a fever dream in the modern globalized world.
The Rubicon Crossed
When Julius Caesar asked his men to ford the Rubicon River, they knew that the march on Rome was an irrevocable act. With more than three years left in his term, President Donald Trump has set the new standard for what border control means. It means that illegality is punished, order is restored to the immigration process, and, ultimately, politicians can no longer declare that nothing can be done.
The Rubicon is crossed; the paradigm has shifted. And it seems there is no going back.
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