“The meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine was very interesting and cordial, but I told him, as I likewise strongly suggested to President Putin, that it is time to stop the killing and make a DEAL! Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts. They should stop where they are.”
In other words, President Trump believes Ukraine should give up all the territory that Russia occupies to stop the fighting. But for many, that would mean all the lives lost by Ukraine in attempting to thwart the Russian unprovoked invasion would have been for naught. That is not likely to be Kyiv’s preferred solution.
Long-Range Russian Weapons Still Strike Ukraine
Meanwhile, Russian ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones and glide bombs, are being used against Ukraine routinely. Still, Ukraine does not have the weapons capability to return the destruction to Russia in kind. Consequently, Zelensky came to meet with President Trump seeking Tomahawk cruise missiles. The potential for the US to provide such weapons has been the subject of debate among foreign policy wonks and the press lately. “The missiles were part of a lengthy news cycle regarding the prospects of their handover, which could have enabled Ukraine to escalate its strikes on infrastructure in the Russian interior,” Just the Newsobserved. It was, however, the notion that Ukraine having and using the longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles would escalate the conflict between Ukraine and Russia that persuaded President Trump not to provide the weapons.
It would seem that with the daily pounding Ukraine is taking, the result of Russian long-range weapons, the fighting has already escalated. It’s just one-sided favoring Russia. Worrying about escalating the conflict was precisely the argument the Biden administration used for piecemealing to Ukraine first MIG-29s, then Patriot air defense missiles, then M1-A1 Abrams tanks, and then the Army Tactical Missiles Systems. That didn’t work well for bringing about a ceasefire. Please note: The Russians are using long-range weapons against Ukraine without concern about “escalating” the conflict. Without a concomitant response by Ukraine holding military targets and infrastructure at risk deeper inside Russia, Kyiv’s forces are at a significant disadvantage. Nevertheless, as The New York Times observed, “But Mr. Trump expressed trepidation about providing Kyiv with the long-range Tomahawk missiles it is seeking, suggesting he first wanted to see Ukraine and Russia renew peace negotiations. ‘We’d much rather have them not need Tomahawks,’ Mr. Trump said of Ukraine ahead of the private meeting.” Threatening to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles should have prompted Putin to be serious about working toward a ceasefire and ultimate peace agreement. What history tells us is that threatening to provide Ukraine with more capable weapons results in Putin requesting an in-person meeting or phone call with President Trump. The discussions prompt short-term optimism that there could be follow-on substantive talks at high levels to achieve a halt to the fighting. But those high-level talks end up just allowing the Russian side to reiterate their demands that are unrealistic and that Ukraine has rejected.
Not Possessing Tomahawk Missiles Concedes Negotiating Advantage
Furthermore, making it known that the US will not provide Ukraine with the more capable Tomahawk missile system gives away any negotiating advantage Ukraine might have had before any negotiations could take place. The better position for the US and Ukraine would have been to have used the Tomahawk or similar longer-range weapons, demonstrating to Moscow what Ukraine has suffered under the continuous Russian bombardment. In other words, it provides Russia with a taste of its own medicine. As it stands, Russia will continue to use its long-range weapons against Ukraine. However, the beginning of substantive talks about an end to the war will begin. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, to iron out preparations for a Trump-Putin in-person meeting reportedly to take place in Budapest, Hungary. No precise date has been set for the summit, but reports are that it will take place soon, perhaps within the next two weeks. One hopes more comes from the Budapest meeting than from the August meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska. ~ The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
