The Fifth US Circuit Court of Appeals handed President Donald Trump yet another win on Friday, February 6. Attorney General Pam Bondi called the immigration ruling a “crucial legal victory” on Saturday. “The Fifth Circuit just held illegal aliens can rightfully be detained without bond – a significant blow against activist judges who have been undermining our efforts to make America safe again at every turn,” Bondi wrote on X.
President Trump’s track record in the federal judiciary this term is a bit of a mixed bag: The Supreme Court and appeals courts seem to frequently favor him while district courts rarely do – and this latest ruling from the Fifth Circuit illustrates the point. But that may be more to that story than immediately meets the eye.
Impowering Immigration Enforcement
Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Donald Trump has overseen a record number of deportations as well as the lowest rate of unlawful crossings in the last 50 years. More than 2.6 million illegals – including over 400,000 with criminal records – were removed in 2025, and the crackdown at the border has resulted in a negative net immigration rate for the first time in half a century.
But with those arrests come challenges to the administration’s authority and methods. Numerous federal district courts nationwide have declared unlawful the policy of detaining folks slated for deportation without bail. In a review of thousands of cases reviewed by Politico, the outlet found that at least 360 judges rejected the strategy in more than 3,000 cases, while only 27 supported the practice in about 130 cases.
Despite the fact that around 96% of the reviewed cases didn’t go Trump’s way, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with him two to one. Judge Edith H. Jones – an appointee of President Ronald Reagan – wrote in the majority opinion that “unadmitted aliens apprehended anywhere in the United States are ineligible for release on bond, regardless of how long they have resided inside the United States.” Jones was joined by Judge Kyle Duncan, a Trump appointee, while Judge Dana Douglas, a Biden appointee, dissented.
Now immigration officials can hold people who aren’t here legally until they can be deported without having to allow bond – but the circuit’s ruling likely won’t be the final word. The matter could soon be headed for the Supreme Court.
Trump’s on a Winning Streak – Or Is He?
Consider the numbers observed by Politico. President Trump lost far more district court cases than he won – but the one circuit court win reverses them all. Does this mean circuit courts are friendlier to Donald Trump than the districts? Not necessarily.
Apparently, the Trump administration has only been challenging the district court rulings that the executive thinks can be won.
Politico wasn’t the only one to study the president’s success rate. The New York Times tracked more than 600 lawsuits against President Trump over the course of 2025. By their count, district judges only ruled in favor of the president about 25% of the time.
He tended to win more on appeal – about 92% of the time – and The NYT attributes that largely to the number of appellate judges he appointed during his first term. To quickly summarize those numbers, President Trump appointed 174 district judges, 54 appellate judges, and, of course, three Supreme Court justices during his first term – out of a total pool of 677, 167, and nine, respectively. So, as you can see, the president appointed a higher percentage of the Supreme Court justices (33%) and circuit judges (32%) than the district judges (25%).
However, another significant factor – pointed out by both The NYT and law professor Jack Goldsmith writing for SCOTUSBlog – is that the Trump administration seems only to be appealing those cases it believes are winnable.
“The Trump administration only goes to the circuit courts of appeals with a slice of its losses, and then it only asks the Supreme Court to get involved in an even smaller slice, something like a couple dozen out of hundreds of cases,” explained Goldsmith, who served as US Assistant Attorney General for the Office of Legal Counsel under George W. Bush. “They only ask the Supreme Court to hear cases they think they can win, so not many.”
“Many people look at the government’s 80 percent or so win rate on the interim orders docket and conclude that the Court is in the can for the Trump administration,” Goldsmith added. “That view is hard to square with the Court’s important stop signs in the immigration, domestic deployment, and Federal Reserve cases that the Trump administration cares about a lot.” Still, this most recent ruling is a definite win for a president curating executive power – and in the realm of immigration, to boot.
