The Candidates’ Market Report
With President Trump’s approval ratings slipping another point this week, the voting and betting public are asking whether this marks a distinct turning point in his presidency. It has been a tough week for the president; attacks from Democrats, pulling back on the China Trade War, but all is not as dark as it looks.
At the same time in his presidency, Barack Obama was on just 45%, one point behind Trump. This is a pattern worthy of examination. For the last year, the tracking between the two presidents has been incredibly close. With very few exceptions, Trump has been one or two points ahead of Obama despite all the trials and tribulations.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 46% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1%)
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 21/10
- Joe Biden – 5/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/2
- Kamala Harris – 5/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 13/2
- Andrew Yang – 14/1
It has all changed this week. From a previously unassailable position, former VP Joe Biden has been toppled from the top spot by Elizabeth Warren. While Uncle Joe is still polling well ahead of the other contenders, his donations in the last few weeks seem to have dried up, and this has had a major impact on the cash betting market.
To the surprise of many, Bernie Sanders has made a last-minute push and taken back the number three spot, gaining half a point to put him on 9/2. This comes at the expense of Kamala Harris, who was sitting comfortably in the top three last week on 11/4 but has dropped to 5/1.
The outsider candidates haven’t seen much movement. Both Buttigieg and Yang have neither gained nor lost.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Joe Biden – 5/1
- Kamala Harris – 9/1
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 25/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 30/1
- Cory Booker – 35/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 40/1
While President Trump has maintained his commanding lead, the second-place spot is sure to upset a huge amount of DNC higher-ups. Elizabeth Warren has confidently leapfrogged the top spot from Joe Biden and landed at 9/2, the territory occupied only briefly by the former VP. Kamala Harris, the formerly bright star of the campaign, is fading fast, losing almost two points this week.
Of the outlier candidates, the only real movement this week comes from Andrew Yang, who has gained two points. Whether it was his teary performance or his policy ideas ringing true with voters, he looks set to cling on until the bitter end. Cory Booker looks set to sink to O’Rourke levels, effectively ending his candidacy.
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/6
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump to grant dual US nationality to all Mexicans – 300/1
- Trump and Putin to receive joint Nobel Peace Prize – 50/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
