Iran Is Holding Gulf States Hostage

Iran is attempting to coerce Gulf allies into stopping the US from continuing airstrikes. The mullahs persist in demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz. They are now threatening US regional allies with strikes on their energy and other infrastructure if American forces resume attacks on Iranian targets. These threats persist even amid indirect talks through Omani intermediaries. The problem remains, as it has been throughout the conflict, that Iran has shown no interest in good-faith discussions. 

Iran Still Attacking Its Neighbors

The conundrum the US faces is that while overwhelming air attacks have rendered Iran militarily defenseless, it still can launch the odd drone and ballistic missile assault. With that limited capability, Iran can hold its neighbors in the Gulf at risk. In early July, Iran stated it had launched coordinated missile and drone attacks aimed specifically at US military facilities in the region. Most of the attacking missiles and drones were intercepted, causing little damage. However, the prospect of Iran escalating the conflict to involve neighboring states was concerning. These attacks have prompted regional leaders to request that the US hold in abeyance further planned large airstrikes on Iran. According to the Associated Press: 

“US President Donald Trump said Sunday [August 2] he decided to hold off on ordering American forces to carry out new strikes against Iran at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. The US president added that a plan was in place for US forces to carry out ‘the biggest attack since World War II’ on Sunday. But he decided to scrap the plan and give diplomacy more time to play out after hearing from key Gulf leaders — including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — as well as at the request of unnamed Iranian officials.”

Despite conflicting messages flying about as Iran attempts to negotiate with Omani diplomats, President Trump is optimistic that an agreement can be reached. The US chief executive explained to reporters that he expects the conflict to end “pretty soon,” indicating progress in keeping the Hormuz Strait open without the threat of Iranian attacks on shipping, The Nation reported. Trump asserted that “very good discussions” are taking place and that the strait would be open soon. However, we’ve heard these words before, and as soon as progress is reported, Iran denies that any such thing has occurred. 

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In terms of the two key issues separating Iran and America, nothing has changed. The US is firm in its demand that Iran give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, turn over to the US or a neutral party the nuclear material it has stockpiled, and concede that the Hormuz Strait is a free and open international waterway – no imposition of fees, tolls, or regulations. Iran still believes it’s in control of the strait and continues to deny any discussions to the contrary. Additionally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hardliners assert Iran’s claim to the right to be a nuclear power.

Dislodging America From the Middle East

Continuing to hold its Gulf neighbors at risk of air attacks with the intention to coerce them into persuading the US to hold off further air strikes against Iran underpins a longer-range Iranian strategy. Strategy or delusion, with Iran, it’s hard to distinguish the difference. According to The Wall Street Journal, “Iran is vowing to bar US Navy warships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz as part of an agreement to reopen the waterway, pressing its goal of curtailing America’s decades-old military presence in the Persian Gulf.” It seems Iranian officials believe they can, as part of their strategy, seek to diminish the US military’s foothold in the region. This belief - and the pointlessness of trying to talk peace with Iran - was further demonstrated Saturday when Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, delivered a list of six demands. According to the secretary, America must stop threatening and insulting Iran, end any military action against Iran, lift the blockade, withdraw sea and air forces from the region, pay restitution for damage done during two wars, and release all frozen assets. Until the US "corrects its behavior" in these ways, Zolghadr warns the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.

As the WSJ reported: “Though Iran has taken a devastating military beating, its leaders now see an opportunity to use negotiations on ending the six-month war to dislodge the US as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf.” With no navy, no air force, no air defense, and a withering few drones and ballistic missiles, it’s difficult to envision how Iran’s intention to move the US out of the Middle East is anything more than a delusional pipe dream. If Iran does not become forthcoming in its negotiations with the US, there is a limit to Trump’s appetite for accommodating Gulf allies. 

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The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.