The polls, analysis, and betting odds — all right here at your fingertips each week on LibertyNation.com — Where Facts Matter.
The Candidates’ Market Report
President Trump finishes out the week with a 46% approval rating. This is up by two points on last week but signals that there is new volatility in how American’s perceive the job he’s doing. This is likely due to two major factors. The first being that as we are now in full election cycle for 2020, voters are being given a snapshot of what a different presidency may look like; the second reason being that they don’t really like what they see in the myriad possibilities the Democrats are presenting.
Congress, on the other hand, is taking a real and genuine beating. Down 4 points this week, the belabored lawmakers can’t seem to catch a break. It may come down to a battle between Trump and Congress when 2020 heats up … and we can see which way the public is leaning.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 46% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 18% ( – 4% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 2/1
- Bernie Sanders – 7/2
- Kamala Harris – 9/2
- Pete Buttigieg – 13/2
- Beto O’Rourke – 12/1
- Andrew Yang – 12/1
Biden hits 2/1 for the first time as Kamala Harris — once seemingly cemented to her 4/1 odds — finally drops back a full half point to 9/2. The rest of the field has remained steady despite some good polling match-ups against the president.
Eric Swalwell (remember him?) has dropped to an ignoble 70/1 with several other candidates determined to catch him up. We can expect some Democrat candidates to reign in their spending from this point on — while still fundraising — in order to keep some of those donated dollars back for later projects. This is going to come down to a contest between Bernie and Biden … who will the party back?
- Donald Trump – Evens
- Joe Biden – 4/1
- Bernie Sanders – 6/1
- Kamala Harris – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 14/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 20/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Cory Booker – 33/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 33/1
- Eric Swalwell – 175/1
While President Trump remains a steady bet to win in 2020, for the first time ever, Joe Biden has reached the “Threat Zone” of 4/1. Sitting presidents can be comfortable with a 5/1 distance, but when that valuable extra point drops off … it’s time to start reacting.
Bernie Sanders has dropped a point, perhaps reflective of Biden’s good polling performance against him. An Echelon Insights poll had Biden beating Sanders by 36 points and all other contenders by at least 40.
- Impeachment – 1/8
- Resignation – 9/1
Trump and Putin to receive joint Nobel Peace Prize – 50/1
- To have his likeness minted on US currency during his term – 100/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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