The Movers and Shakers of 2026 is a multi-part series examining the most important and contentious races heading down the electoral pipeline. So far, we’ve covered:
The heady California gubernatorial primary,
The Senate Showdown, doing the election math, and
Georgia and Maine as the big toss-up states for Senate control.
Of the six Senate seats most likely to flip, we covered Georgia and Maine yesterday, which leaves us Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and a special election in Ohio. Today, we look at the two that have the most star power behind them.
Remember, Democrats only need to gain a net of three upper chamber seats to create a tie, so every race counts.
Michigan Mysteries for 2026
With the impending retirement of Democrat Gary Peters, Michigan has become an “open” race, meaning there is no incumbent advantage. Despite opting for Trump in both 2016 and 2024, the state has been politically left for a good many years. In fact, until Peters’ razor-thin victory in 2020, Democrats had dominated in just about every race since astronaut Jack Lousma came within four points of toppling then-Senator Carl Levin in 1984.
In the 2020 race, Senator Peters narrowly eked out a win against Republican challenger John James by just 1.6% (a precipitous drop from his 2014 margin of 13%). That’s just under 100,000 votes. Notably, this close call took place at the same time voters were rejecting Donald Trump for president. So, what does all that mean for today?
The aforementioned John James is running for governor rather than taking another tilt at the Senate windmill, leaving the path almost entirely clear for former US Rep. Mike Rodgers. On the Democratic side, there are three serious contenders: US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow, and local politico Abdul El-Sayed. Polling has Stevens ahead of McMorrow by roughly two points to win the nomination, with El-Sayed in a distant third. Notably, for Rodgers, those positions reflect the degree of difficulty he may encounter.
In head-to-head matchups, Rodgers bests all three Democrat candidates, plus 2.5% against Stevens, plus 4% against McMorrow, and a mighty 8% lead over El-Sayed. This doesn’t mean he has an easy task ahead, however. After all, neither he nor his Democratic counterpart has the official nomination, and a lot can change once voters coalesce around a single candidate. This is a must-watch contest, as it could flip to the GOP, meaning Democrats would have to pick up at least four seats rather than just three – and that’s only to get to a tie.
Newsworthy New Hampshire
Democrats are reasonably confident that they’ll keep hold of New Hampshire even though Senator Jeanne Shaheen has decided not to fight for a fourth term. But it’s not going to be an easy battle. Currently topping the primary for the Democratic Party nomination is US Rep. Chris Pappas; he’s young (just 45) but experienced, and he has been a fixture of New Hampshire politics for the last 12 years. One might assume that such a well-known candidate has all the advantages. But just hang on for a moment.
Sununu’s younger brother, Chris, was recently the state’s four-term Republican governor. Their father, John H. Sununu, was also the governor back in the eighties, and then he went on to serve almost two years as chief of staff under George H.W. Bush. This family legacy could give the former senator an edge, but, as the Monitor highlighted, that in-state political capital doesn’t always scale up to the national level.
And Then There Were Two…
This leaves us with Ohio and North Carolina. Both seats are currently red and will be the bulwark against the Democratic challenge. In their own way, they may, in fact, be the most fascinating of Senate races to watch. Check back tomorrow for the analysis.
