The Candidates’ Market Report
The president, despite a series of high-profile attacks in the media, appears to be holding his own in job approval ratings of over 50%. In fact, contrary to what many pundits suggest, with his latest rating of 52%, Donald Trump is on a steady rise that predicts disaster for his Democrat competition. During the same point in his presidency, former President Obama was stuck fluctuating between 42% and 46% yet went on to win decisively in 2012. If we take history as our lesson, Trump is well on the path to re-election.
Whether President Trump can maintain his strong position has much to do with who wins the War of Spin on the Ukraine question. If the Trump campaign can equate his calls with Ukraine to Biden’s earlier dealings, House Democrats calling for impeachment may have to back down or risk burning the Obama legacy. However, if the more progressive wing (favoring Elizabeth Warren) can take the helm, ditching Biden in a storm of controversy may well be seen as a bonus.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 52% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 17% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 6/4
- Joe Biden – 13/5
- Bernie Sanders – 6/1
- Kamala Harris – 10/1
- Andrew Yang – 10/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
Senator Warren maintains her 6/4 lead position this week. She has also begun overtaking her competitors in some key polling, especially Iowa, which should be of little surprise to those that follow this column weekly. It looks like the polling world is finally catching up with the betting world. The movement for Joe Biden is fractional, but Bernie Sanders has dropped a whole crucial point.
Of the outlier candidates, little has changed … with one exception. Kamala Harris is in a steep decline losing a further point and a half. She has long been the only candidate that has flirted between the top-tier and bottom-tier positions, and her rise or fall have long been in question. It seems that decision has now been made for her. As the rules for entry into the 5th round of Democrat debates begin to tighten, the Harris campaign has to be asking itself if it is still viable. More to the point, can she still reasonably expect an offer for the VP slot?
- Donald Trump – EVS
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/2
- Joe Biden – 11/2
- Bernie Sanders – 11/1
- Kamala Harris – 14/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 18/1
- Cory Booker – 66/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Last week we saw the majority of Democrat contenders improving their odds of winning the keys to the White House, however, that rise appears to be short-lived. The president maintains his commanding lead while top-tier Dems have had no forward progress with both Warren and Biden not shifting a single point. Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, appears to be losing his edge, dropping a whole point.
The majority of pundits are looking to Iowa’s latest polling that gives Warren a lead over Biden and predicting an almost certain swing. And while the betting odds back up this rather late prediction, the “handover of power” may not be as smooth as they think. As candidates begin to drop out, support will be shifted; many of those facing the chop lean more to the progressive wing of the party and will switch to Warren, but this just makes her a bigger target. At some point, the Massachusetts Senator will have to start giving details and costs to her grand plans.
- Impeachment – 2/9
- Resignation – 1/12
- Melania to run for President against Trump in 2020 – 200/1
- Trump to confirm he’s had some form of hair surgery – 5/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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