New trends are emerging in the US housing market, and they may finally help prospective Generation Z and young millennial homebuyers achieve the American dream of homeownership. In recent months, industry data have revealed ballooning inventories and tumbling prices. Of course, real estate conditions will unlikely revert to pre-pandemic levels, much like everything else in the broader economy. Still, the latest numbers are promising for have-not families.
South Florida Housing Market
During the coronavirus pandemic, when home prices were still within reach and mortgage rates were at record lows, the US housing market was in a frenzy. A notable example of this was in South Florida, where domestic migration surged, and demand for limited housing stocks spiraled out of control. Home values in the Sunshine State remain higher than pre-crisis levels, but they are trending downward.
According to new figures from real estate platform Redfin, the median home price in the Florida housing market fell 3.2% year-over-year in April. Additionally, the number of homes sold tumbled by nearly 9%, and the number of homes for sale increased by more than 16%.
But why should somebody from Biloxi, MS, care about what is happening in Florida? A statement to Bloomberg from Chen Zhao, the head of economics research for Redfin, is quite telling for the rest of the US housing market: “South Florida is the epicenter of housing market weakness in the United States. The question for the rest of the country is, will this spread? Florida is uniquely bad right now.”
Is the real estate situation improving across the United States? Yes and no.
Buy, Sell, or Hold?
If you purchased a residential property at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic when a 30-year mortgage rate was hovering around 3%, what incentive is there to sell? Let’s be honest: The United States, at least for the time being, will have a generational wealth divide between those who bought before 2021 and those who did not. It is the golden handcuff effect.
Not all should abandon hope, ye who dip their toes in the US real estate market.
In a May 29 report, Redfin released an eye-popping statistic: The US housing market has approximately 500,000 more sellers than buyers. Put simply, 31 of the top 50 metro areas are buyer's markets, with Miami sitting at the top of the list.
Why this is good news, at least from the buyer's perspective, is that home prices are projected to drop 1% by the year's end. This will bolster households' purchasing power and force sellers to sell as soon as possible.
“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall. Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, in the report. “But as sellers see their homes sit longer on the market and notice fewer buyers coming through on tour, more of them will realize that the market has adjusted and reset their expectations accordingly.”
This comes as the median home sales price rose nearly 2% in April from a year ago, hitting nearly $432,000 and representing the slowest growth rate in about two years. So, while a 1% drop would pale in comparison to the roughly 20% increase observed over the last several years, every little bit helps.
Indeed, these are positive developments for younger families. However, here comes the bad news: interest rates.
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage clocked in at 6.85% for the week ending June 5. This is little changed from a year ago and much higher than the pandemic low of 2.65%. Mortgage rates track the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield, resulting in higher borrowing costs for homebuyers.
Last month, the median US monthly housing payment reached an all-time high of $2,868, up 3.6% from the previous year.
Twiddle the Thumbs
A new Bank of America Institute study discovered that 60% of current homeowners and prospective buyers are unsure whether it is a good or bad time to purchase a home. At the same time, half believe the US housing market is better now than a year ago, and 75% say home prices and interest rates will fall and plan to wait until then before purchasing a new home.
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