Republican Debbie Lesko defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni Tuesday in a special election in Arizona’s 8th congressional district, as the GOP held on to a seat they have controlled since 2013. It is the seat once held by Gabrielle Giffords, who was badly wounded in an assassination attempt in 2012.
This was an election to replace former GOP Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned from the House in December after being accused of sexual misconduct. And Lesko, a former State Senator, prevailed by a comfortable margin over Tipirmeni, a doctor who had never run for office before, holding a seat in this red district in the Phoenix suburbs by a reported margin of 53-47%.
Donald Trump won the district by 21 points in 2016, but Republican groups, wary of another embarrassing loss like the one they suffered in a heavily Republican district in southwest Pennsylvania in March, contributed over one million dollars to the GOP candidate. And in the end, Lesko did not disappoint.
Republican Debbie Lesko (left) defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in Arizona special House election.
This was the 8th special House election since the 2016 presidential election, and every one of them has been spun by the winning party as an indicator of things to come in November’s midterms, while the losing party ordinarily dismisses the result as a “one-off.” But the truth is that the six and a half months between now and the November elections is, in political terms, a virtual eternity. Between the ongoing special counsel investigation, Trump’s upcoming negotiations with North Korea, economic conditions and an array of unforseen occurences, there is no telling what event(s) might animate voters before they go to the voting booth.
While the GOP holds to the truism “it’s the economy, stupid” in peddling an optimistic forecast for November, Democrats continue to hang their hat on a highly energized base who, they hope, will turn out in huge numbers to send a message to Trump and hand them control of the House. They better hope their hatred of Trump is enough to overcome their lack of any discernible positive message. They will need to pick up 24 seats to gain the majority in the lower house, a relatively daunting challenge, but one with ample precedent.
Republicans picked up a treasure trove of House seats in the two midterm elections during the Obama era - gaining 63 seats in 2010 and another 13 four years later. Prior to that, the Democrats added 31 seats in 2006, the midpoint of George W. Bush’s second term. But while the political class stampedes to the axiomatic conclusion that the party holding the White House always loses House seats in the midterm elections, it is worth noting that in the two midterm elections before 2006, the party of the sitting president gained seats in the lower chamber - the GOP under Bush in 2002 and Democrats under Clinton in 1998.
But this victory aside, there is no sugarcoating how bad the numbers have been for Republicans in the special elections and gubernatorial races since Trump was elected. Democrats won overwhelming victories in the Governor’s races in Virginia, which has turned dramatically from a red to blue state, and deep blue New Jersey. They stunned everyone by winning a Senate seat in Alabama, the reddest of red states, and while they have won only one of the eight special House elections since 2016, mostly in heavily GOP areas, they have swung the vote their way by an average of 17 points (based on comparing each outcome to the vote in the last two presidential elections).
So Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief, while Democrats dismiss the significance of this special election in Arizona and continue to predict a blue wave. But one thing is for sure: few will remember this particular race when all 435 House seats are up for grabs in November.
