The Candidates’ Market Report
Recent polling suggests that President Trump is closing the gap on Joe Biden. The latest survey by CNN, which ranged from Aug. 12 to 15 (so including the announcement of Kamala Harris as Biden’s running mate), suggests the former vice president has just a four-point lead. In swing states, this is down to just 1%.
The latest Rasmussen polling of Trump’s approval reveals that the president’s support base is as steady as ever. Whether he can turn this into votes on election day depends on how energized his fans are.
Team Biden and the Democrats are hoping their mostly virtual national convention will generate enough enthusiasm to maintain the lead, but time will tell whether the Bernie Bros and the more progressive wing of the party are happy with the few sops that have so far been cast their way.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 47% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Democrats – 4/7
- Republicans – 5/4
Texas
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/6
- Republicans – 11/10
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/8
- Republicans – 9/2
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/9
- Democrats – 13/8
Iowa
- Republicans – 2/5
- Democrats – 7/4
Maine
- Democrats – 1/7
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 1/5
- Republicans – 3/1
North Carolina
- Democrats – 8/11
- Republicans – Even
Ohio
- Republicans – 4/6
- Democrats – 11/10
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 3/10
- Republicans – 11/5
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 4/6
- Donald Trump – 13/10
- Kamala Harris – 50/1
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Mike Pence – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Kanye West – 225/1
- Bernie Sanders – 300/1
While Joe Biden still retains a lead in the betting odds, the gap is shrinking. It looks like his campaign will be a virtual one, and, as such, he needs to get strong on messaging. However, if the first night of the Democratic Party convention was anything to go by, he has tied his wagon to the Black Lives Matter movement … and this may be what derails him. Only 56% of Democrat voters feel the violent protests should be allowed to continue; by associating himself and his campaign with BLM (and by extension Antifa), he may be scaring off the moderate voters.
Surprisingly, the choice of Kamala Harris as his running mate has not had much of an impact on the betting odds, which ties in with polling that suggests just as many voters are disappointed with the choice as are excited.
Polling in swing states appears to be matching up to the betting market. With Joe Biden as the frontrunner, the odds of President Trump winning the Electoral College vote are slipping slightly. Trump will need to campaign a lot more if he hopes to win a second term.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 251 – 269 = 12/1
- 270 – 275 = 16/1
- 276 – 280 = 16/1
- 281 – 290 = 14/1
- 291 – 300 = 14/1
- 301 – 315 = 10/1
- 316 – 330 = 10/1
- 331 – 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
