The Candidates’ Market Report
The country is dividing into two distinct camps: those that want the economy reopened as soon as possible and those that don’t. With President Trump’s phased plan to get state economies back up and running, it appears that some elected leaders would rather take the financial hit than putting citizens at risk… or would they? Some states that have very few COVID-19 infections are also looking to delay a relaxing of the guidelines; does this suggest that keeping the economy in a rocky position has more to do with the 2020 election than concern for the health and wellbeing of the residents? Republican voters certainly seem to think so.
Now that Joe Biden’s only real competitor is “the other Biden,” the party machine has started rallying around him. However, in a sop to the progressive wing of the party, Biden himself has been trying to allow Bernie Sanders to hold onto all of his delegates. Under the usual party rules, Bernie should have forfeited over 300 delegates to Biden, the fact that the former VP wants Sanders to keep them suggests that he is trying to get the Bernie Bros onside. Is he hoping to avoid the humiliation of booing that took place in 2016 when Hillary Clinton’s name was mentioned at the convention?
In the wake of stalling extra funding for small businesses, Congress has lost the good will it had amassed in recent weeks. Loosing 7% in just a few days proves that the voters value action over partisanship.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 46% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 22% ( – 7% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/25
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 25/1
- Michelle Obama – 50/1
No change on the leaderboard for Democratic Party nominee this week suggesting that Biden is a certainty … at least up until the convention. When cash bettors stop laying money down, it means one of two things: either the race is a dead cert, or they predict that nothing on offer will come to fruition. All the action now has shifted to who rides on Biden’s coattails for the second slot on the ballot. With Bernie hanging onto his delegate haul, the progressive wing might have some sway in who gets to debate VP Mike Pence and choosing someone who may very well have to take over if Biden does win is a big decision.
Biden’s podcast Here’s the Deal, has turned away from being just a platform for attacks on the president and has morphed into a live stream job interview for potential running mates. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer had her shot but seems to have fallen out of favor with the public when she made protesting a crime in her home state. From five to one to 15 to 2, she is now in fourth place with little chance of a comeback.
Next up on the Biden podcast is Amy Klobuchar, herself a former candidate and considered by many to be about as moderate as you can get. Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) remains the frontrunner to be Biden’s pick.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 7/4
- Amy Klobuchar – 7/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Gretchen Whitmer – 15/2
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:
“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”
- Florida: Republican – 5/6 Democrats – 5/6
- Arizona: Democrats – 4/6 Republicans – 11/10
- Michigan: Democrats – 4/9 Republicans – 6/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 8/11 Republicans – 10/11
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
- Donald Trump – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 6/5
- Andrew Cuomo – 40/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Hillary Clinton – 50/1
- Nikki Haley – 150/1
- Michelle Obama – 150/1
As with the Democratic nominee race, the presidential race has firmed-up to a point where very few people are putting their money down. Those who think Trump will win are not changing course, and those that reckon Biden takes the White House are just as convinced. What is surprising, however, is that despite a pandemic ravaging the nation, desire almost all the economic gains of the last three years being scrubbed, and despite the relentless hounding of the Biden-friendly media, President Trump is still the favorite to win the 2020 election. This could indicate that Americans suspect they will need an economic catalyst to get the nation back on its feet and that they don’t see Joe Biden as that man.
- Trump’s party to win over 50 Senate seats – 5/6
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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Govt. Response to Coronavirus
High School: White House Acts on Coronavirus
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Elementary School: Trump Versus Coronavirus
The Primary Process
High School: The Primary and Caucus Process Explained
Middle School: The Primary and Caucus Process
Elementary School: Primaries and Caucuses: How Do They Work?
VIDEO: 5 Facts: Joe Biden