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Political Horse Race: Is Trump Within the Margin of Error?

The gap tightens and Team Biden feels the heat.

The Candidates’ Market Report

President Trump is still trailing Joe Biden in every major poll. However, the divide is shrinking daily, and it’s starting to look like the majority of surveys are approaching margin-of-error territory. Add this to recent evidence showing Trump has 29% support from black voters and an enormous figure of 51% support from other “non-white” voters, and the Democrat machine must be asking itself where it went wrong.

While Biden still polls as being the better choice for handling COVID-19 (despite his plans being entirely ones which the president has already implemented) and race relations, Trump maintains the lead on the economy, law and order, and rebuilding the country. Which of these issues will motivate voters in November?

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 48% ( – 3% )
  • Congress – 17% ( no change )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Joe Biden – 1/50
  • Hillary Clinton – 25/1
  • Michelle Obama – 33/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 50/1
  • Andrew Cuomo – 66/1
  • Kamala Harris – 100/1
  • Elizabeth Warren – 100/1

Joe Biden has announced that his VP pick is made, although his campaign team says otherwise. This is the first election where it seems supporters are openly backing a candidate on the understanding that he will not complete his first term and that the presidency will be handed to his second in command.

With that concept in mind, the betting markets suggest that Kamala Harris will be the 47th president of the United States, coming in hot on even money, closely followed by Susan Rice on two to one. With the Democratic Party National Convention just a week away, there are a lot of last-minute bets from punters seeking to make a quick buck on a shock outcome.

Despite all major polls handing the lead to Biden, the latest Emerson College survey suggests that most voters believe Donald Trump will be re-elected.

Biden’s Running Mate:

  • Kamala Harris – Even
  • Susan Rice – 2/1
  • Gretchen Whitmer – 4/1
  • Tammy Duckworth – 14/1
  • Val Demings – 14/1
  • Elizabeth Warren – 18/1
  • Michelle Obama – 22/1
  • Karen Bass – 25/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 50/1
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms – 66/1
  • Stacey Abrams – 100/1

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years.

The odds of each party winning the following states:

  • Florida: Democrats – 4/7; Republicans – 5/4
  • Arizona: Democrats – 8/13; Republicans – 6/5
  • Michigan: Democrats – 1/5; Republicans – 3/1
  • Wisconsin: Democrats – 3/10; Republicans – 11/5

Presidential Election:

  • Joe Biden – 4/7
  • Donald Trump – 6/4
  • Hillary Clinton – 66/1
  • Kamala Harris – 100/1
  • Mike Pence – 100/1
  • Michelle Obama – 200/1
  • Kanye West – 200/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 300/1
  • Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson – 500/1

The head-to-head polls are tightening up. Just one month ago, it was not unusual to see Biden with a 14- or 15-point lead in the presidential race. The last four polls tell a different story. The Hill/HarrisX gives Biden a three-point edge, as does the latest Rasmussen survey. Emerson gives Biden a four-point lead.

These figures are remarkably close to the margin of error. Added to the well-reported “silent Trump voter” swing, it seems possible – even likely – that the race is still wide open.

The odds are 13/2 that no presidential election will take place on November 3.

Donald Trump and the Electoral College:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:

  • 251 – 269 = 12/1
  • 270 – 275 = 16/1
  • 276 – 280 = 16/1
  • 281 – 290 = 14/1
  • 291 – 300 = 14/1
  • 301 – 315 = 8/1
  • 316 – 330 = 7/1
  • 331 – 350 = 12/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~

Read more from Mark Angelides.

Read More From Mark Angelides

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