Political Horse Race: Impeachment Dust Settles

The Candidates' Market Report

The polls are in and the gamblers have laid their money down regarding the impeachment of President Donald Trump ... and it doesn't look good for Democrats. When the president said, “This impeachment represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional abuse of power by Democrat lawmakers unequaled in nearly two-and-a-half centuries of American legislative history,” 51% of the likely voters agreed with him completely. A majority see this as a partisan issue. In fact, 49% of likely voters say that the whole thing is driven more by Hillary Clinton's 2016 loss rather than any supposed "High Crimes" committed by Trump. It also seems unlikely that voters will be willing to let this issue go, with 53% stating that the media is working in cooperation with House Democrats to remove the president from office. There will be a bill to settle at the end of this affair ... the gambling odds show who's on the hook to pay it.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 48% ( - 1% )
• Congress - 18% ( no change )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Joe Biden - 15/8
• Bernie Sanders - 7/2
• Elizabeth Warren - 4/1
• Pete Buttigieg - 6/1
• Michael Bloomberg - 8/1
• Hillary Clinton - 13/1
• Andrew Yang - 18/1
• Amy Klobuchar - 25/1
• Tulsi Gabbard 66/1

Joe Biden has received a bump in numbers this week to win the nomination, jumping from just under 3/1 to 15/8. This spike in bets has one of two likely causes. Either the former VP has managed to distinguish himself from other candidates, or the gamblers have figured that the fix is in. After the "wine cave" event, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has dropped a point but the person pushing his downfall, Elizabeth Warren, failed to capitalize on her maneuvers, staying in steady third on 4/1. Tulsi Gabbard, after voting "present" for the impeachment vote was scalded in a poll as being the most disliked Democrat candidate, overtaking Michael Bloomberg. However, the betting market suggests that this was a good move from her as she jumps from 100/1 to 66/1.

Presidential Election:

Donald Trump:

• Senate Conviction - 12/1
• Complete First Term - 1/12
• How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
  • Zero - EVS
  • The required 15 to 19 - 12/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.