The Candidates’ Market Report
Betting on the presidential election has been suspended by bookmakers in the wake of President Trump’s recent positive test for COVID-19.* Gambling companies have stopped displaying the odds and taking bets for the presidential election outcome, the Electoral College race, and other associated propositions. However, in light of this development, interest appears to have increased in Congressional races.
At present, Democrats hold a slight edge on winning the Senate at 11/8 with Republicans close behind on two to one. The odds of no-overall-control are 7/4. Yet, if the historical trajectory is anything to go by, the GOP has increased its share of Senate seat over that several elections. The House seems certain to stay with Democrats with a 1/7 advantage.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 45% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 14% ( – 1% )
Senate Map:
When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here’s a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:
- Republicans: 46
- Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46
- Toss Up: 8
The states that are a toss-up include Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Of these, the latest polling indicates that Republicans will win three and Democrats will win five, giving a 51/49 split in favor of the Democrats.
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
(Last available numbers before suspension)
Florida
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Texas
- Republicans – 1/4
- Democrats – 5/2
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/7
- Republicans – 11/8
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/10
- Republicans – 5/1
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Iowa
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Maine
- Democrats – 1/7
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 2/7
- Republicans – 11/4
North Carolina
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Ohio
- Republicans – 4/7
- Democrats – 5/4
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 8/15
- Republicans – 11/8
Presidential Election:
(Last available numbers before suspension)
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Kamala Harris – 80/1
- Hillary Clinton – 250/1
- Mike Pence – ? (VP Pence’s numbers shortened dramatically before betting markets suspended
- Michelle Obama – 300/1
- Kanye West – 500/1
- Bernie Sanders – no odds under 500/1
If one were to take the latest polling as a clear indicator of which way the election was heading, it would seem that President Trump should pack up his tent and start thinking about redecorating Trump Tower. However, as the election draws nearer, pollsters have thrown their remaining credibility out of the window in an effort to show Biden as a foregone conclusion. The latest poll being touted comes from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, in which VP Biden enjoys an extremely healthy 14-point lead over the incumbent. If this number shocks you, it should, for that is what it is designed to do. Looking at how the survey was carried out, however, should shock you a whole lot more.
Two elements stand out: The poll samples 800 Registered Voters. Not LIkely voters. As FiveThirtyEight points out:” Likely voter polls also tend to provide more reliable predictions of election results, especially in midterm years. Whereas polls of all registered voters or all adults usually overstate the performance of Democratic candidates.” But it is not just pollsters that realize this, even the mainstream media acknowledges the unreliability of Registered Voter polls. The Washington Post expounded this idea in an article titled: “Why the ‘likely voter’ is the holy grail of polling.”
The second aspect that makes this “groundbreaking” poll suspect is that it over-samples Democrats by a huge margin. 45% of respondents identify as somewhere on the Democrat scale compared with just 37% Republicans. The poor Independents have only 13% representation. Even when accounting for “leaners,” these figures are just plain ridiculous and can in no way be considered a realistic sampling.
And this is all without mentioning how irrelevant a national poll consisting of just 800 people is regarded in the polling world.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
(Last available numbers before suspension)
- 270 – 299 = 5/1
- 180-269 = 5/1
- 300 – 329 = 6/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
*Betting has now recommenced.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
