The betting markets are going full throttle in trying to predict the outcome of next week’s impeachment trial. While Democrats race to convict former President Trump, the gamblers are putting their money down on the Senate failing to get the required two-thirds (67) majority vote.
When Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) raised a point of order on the constitutionality of impeaching a president who has already left office, only five Republicans sided with the united Dems, signifying that the effort will not meet the threshold. Following the adage of nothing being certain except death and taxes, it would be unwise to predict the certainty of the outcome. However, gamblers seem confident that there will be no conviction.
How many Senators will vote to convict Trump?
Requiring 67 votes to convict in an evenly split Senate, Democrats hope to pick up 17 disgruntled Republicans. The odds of them achieving this are very slim. According to betting markets, the numbers of votes to convict Trump this time around have the following odds:
50-54 - 5/6
55-59 - 5/4
60-64 - 12/1
65 or more - 16/1
49 or less - 20/1
For the bettors who prefer a more simple straight line gamble, the odds of the Senate voting to convict are presently 14 to one. The standing on the Senate voting not to convict is just one in 50 – meaning a $100 bet would pull in only $2.
What of 2024?
President Biden is not the favorite to win the election in 2024; as of now, it is unknown whether he would even choose to run again. Taking the top spot is Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a significant lead over former President Trump.
As an interesting aside, three of Trump’s children, Ivanka, Don Jr., and Eric, are all on 18 to one.
Kamala Harris - 7/2
Joe Biden - 5/1
Donald Trump - 10/1
Nikki Haley - 10/1
Pete Buttigieg - 14/1
Mike Pence - 16/1
Closely tied to betting odds are the numerous approval rating surveys. Rasmussen Reports provides daily polls on the president’s job approval, which to date shows that Joe Biden is averaging 48%. Compared with President Trump during his same period in office, the incumbent is down almost ten points.
Policy Approval?
President Biden may still be in his honeymoon period with the media, but the voters appear to be edging toward frustration. In the last ten days, polling on his raft of executive orders has not been favorable:
More than 50% of likely voters believe that rejoining the Paris Climate Accord will result in higher taxes and serious job losses.
By a two to one margin, voters want the migrant caravan stopped at the border.
Only 36% of voters think stopping the Keystone XL pipeline project is a good idea. 51% say it is a bad idea.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
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