Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will be casting their ballots for gubernatorial candidates in November. But beyond who ends up occupying the respective governors’ mansions, the Democrats are hoping to reverse a political optics disaster that has befallen them since Donald Trump reclaimed the White House. As such, it seems the candidates are looking to hit the reset button on the last ten years.
Party Like It's 2015, Democrats
That was a heady year for both Democrats and the politicians they had voted into office. Barack Obama was still president, and his heir apparent was party staple Hillary Clinton, who had – according to pollsters – a more than 90% chance of winning the general election. The Republican Party of 2015 was reliably, well, Republican, and the grand “old” party had little hope of fending off the campaign machine perfected over the previous two cycles.
And then Trump descended the golden escalator and rained on their dream of a perpetual center-left America.
Hopes were crushed and a period of political chaos ensued as DC dwellers sought – and failed – to come to terms with the doctrinal earthquake that upset everything the left believed about how government worked. Fast forward to a few years, and the constant chants of “Trump is a one-term president” have become silent, and Democratic Party faithful are hoping for a positive portent on which to pin their midterm dreams.
Cracks Forming?
New Jersey candidate Mikie Sherrill and Virginia hopeful Abigail Spanberger are both comfortably leading their races, but a closer look at the polling suggests comfortable victories are far from guaranteed. Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling aggregator has Sherrill leading by 4.9% and Spanberger ahead by 7.2%. Surely this is cause for celebration?
Let’s look at Spanberger’s numbers first. If we take just the polling from the last 30 days, her lead averages to around 6.7%, but what happens when we remove “low-quality” polling? Specifically, if we carve out surveys that include fewer than 1,000 people and those that have a margin of error greater than three points, her lead falls to just 3%. With the Democratic Party being historically unpopular right now (underwater by 25 points), 3% is panic territory.
Couple this with the recent fiasco involving Virginia attorney general candidate Jay Jones, in which text messages were uncovered detailing how he hoped a political opponent’s young children would die in their mother’s arms, and things start to get really bad. Indeed, Jones’ own polling has shifted from an average 6.4% lead to being behind by 2.5%.
No Garden Party in the Garden State
One might think New Jersey would be an easier pick-up for Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, but with just a 4.9% lead two weeks out, this could prove to be a nailbiter. Again, if we count only polls from the last 30 days and remove those with large margins of error, the race looks a little tighter. In fact, once these factors are accounted for, Sherrill’s lead slips to around 3% – which coincidentally is roughly the amount Republican Jack Ciattarelli lost to Gov. Phil Murphy by in 2021.
But 2021 was a different time. Joe Biden was in the White House, and many voters assumed the MAGA movement was finished. Indeed, one might say the circumstances are the mirror opposite of where they are today.
So, what are Democrats to do if they want to recapture the supposed magic of 2015?
Release Obama’s Campaign Schtick!
One might assume that Obama was the last president with a “D” after his name the way he is brought in to shore up Dem campaigns and send his extra-special message that if you don’t agree with him, you’re basically a bad person. Yes, he still has rockstar appeal to many on the political left, but has he really had success in bolstering failing candidates these last few years? Since Republicans control the trifecta, it would be hard to argue that he has had a major impact.
And yet, as the countdown to election day for New Jersey and Virginia runs apace, bringing in Obama is almost certainly a Hail Mary or kitchen sink strategy. Some even see it as an admission that the campaigns aren’t where they should be.
Spokesman for the Ciattarelli campaign, Chris Russell, described drafting Obama as a sign of weakness, saying:
"National and New Jersey Democrats are in full-blown panic. At this point, we expect them to import anyone they think can excite Democrats because Mikie Sherrill excites no one."
And, of course, with Obama’s signature legacy, the Affordable Care Act, currently facing a tough time in Congress, he will be keen to bolster support for that legislation, too.
According to Ballotpedia’s tracking of Obama’s political endorsements, we see a fairly good pick rate back in 2018 (68% of more than 300 endorsements) to a coin-flip record in 2024. He can still draw the crowds, but they are for the believers, for the faithful who view Obama as the pinnacle of Democrat success. But in terms of the wider electorate, he’s pretty much a spent force living off past glories. To draft him at the 11th hour says a whole lot about the confidence Democratic Party hopefuls have in their ability to win on Nov. 4.
