A bipartisan redistricting committee in Ohio unanimously passed a new congressional map on Friday, October 31, that seems likely to flip two blue seats red in the 2026 midterm elections. Even the Democrats got behind this new GOP-friendly map, but the most likely alternative would have been considerably worse for them.
States both red and blue are racing to create new congressional district maps ahead of the midterms. President Donald Trump asked for a mid-decade redistricting from Republican-controlled states, and that triggered a reaction from Democratic governors across the nation. Both sides are now trying to flip as many seats as possible before November of next year, but so far, the GOP seems to be winning the gerrymandering game. Meanwhile, Ohio was actually forced by the state constitution to draw new congressional maps this year because the current one, approved in 2022, didn’t receive bipartisan support.
Republicans Win in Ohio – But Democrats Don’t Quite Lose
Generally, redistricting happens once a decade after the census. In 2022, Ohio lawmakers carried out this task, but the resulting map didn’t gain bipartisan support in the legislature, as required by the state constitution. So now, in 2025, it had to be done again. The new congressional map approved by the Buckeye State’s bipartisan redistricting commission was a definite win for Republicans. However, in a way, it can also be called a win for Ohio Democrats – or, at the very least, not nearly the loss they could have suffered.
The new map gives the GOP a better chance at flipping two seats currently occupied by Democrats. Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s Ninth District, which already leaned Republican, got redder, and Rep. Greg Landsman’s First District now leans republican. Meanwhile, Rep. Emilia Syke’s blue 13th District got bluer, and a few Republican districts got redder.
Currently, Ohio has ten Republicans and five Democrats in the US House of Representatives. The most likely outcome of next year’s election is a 12-3 majority for Republicans.
But it could have been worse for Democrats had they not agreed to this plan. According to some reports, Republicans on the redistricting commission showed Democrats an alternative map favoring a 13-2 GOP-led delegation to Congress. If the bipartisan committee – made up of Governor Mike DeWine, Auditor of State Keith Faber, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and four appointees of the legislature, one each for the state senate and house minority and majority leaders – failed to approve a map, it would fall to the state legislature. Republicans, who hold a 24-9 majority in the state senate and a 65-34 majority in the state house, would have had no trouble at all passing the more aggressive option presented to the commission. Democrats could then challenge it with a popular vote referendum, but it would require them to gather nearly a quarter million signatures in just 90 days – a tall order any time, but especially during the holidays and an Ohio winter.
GOP Winning the Gerrymandering Game – For Now
While Ohio was required by its constitution to redistrict, it’s but one of many states playing the gerrymandering game. President Trump’s call for Republicans to pick up as many seats as possible through new congressional maps mid-decade was answered by several GOP governors. And, of course, a handful of Democrats launched their own campaigns to counter it.
Lawmakers in Texas and Missouri passed new maps in August and September, respectively, which favor Republicans. North Carolina did the same once a state Supreme Court ruling allowed it, leading to several Democrat-held districts likely flipping Republican in the next elections. Indiana has also called for a special session to redraw maps, and Florida officials have raised the possibility of doing the same.
On the bluer side of things, Democratic leaders in New York, Illinois, and California have all pushed to do the same for their team, but so far only California seems to have much chance of making it happen in time for next year’s elections. Golden State Governor Gavin Newsom’s own gerrymandering scheme requires a popular vote referendum to go ahead. Initially, that seemed like too heavy a lift, but recent polling indicates the November 4 vote might just go his way.
