The Pentagon is rightfully concerned over press reports that leaked documents on US plans for supporting Ukraine appeared on the social media platforms Twitter and Telegram. The Biden administration has been criticized for not having a strategy for Ukraine, so discovering that there are plans could be a positive for the White House. Some of the supposedly leaked documents are classified as high as top secret but are up to five or more weeks old. At this point, all the Department of Defense (DOD) has said is that it is investigating the reports.
Defense Department Looking into Leaked Documents
"The leak is outrageous. We've given the enemy an advantage they don't deserve to have, for sure," General Jack Keane, US Army (Ret.), told Fox’s Brian Kilmeade. The Department of Justice (DOJ) is also looking into the matter after the Defense Department formally referred the alleged document leak investigation to Justice. Though this is not unheard of, the Defense Department usually does its own criminal investigations first, identifies a culprit, and turns the issue over to the FBI for further processing and prosecution, if warranted. Admittedly speculative, requesting DOJ involvement early could indicate the reported leak came from another US government agency. However, merely "looking into the matter" suggests there is doubt about whether the exposed documents are authentic.
The story has gained momentum, with The New York Times explaining,
"The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia. Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed."
The comment on the leaked documents appearing "modified" suggests some real doubt about whether the material is authentic. DOD documents are formatted and written in a distinctive way that differentiates them from other agencies and from fakes.
Additionally, information developed and portrayed in US and NATO documents closely follows public statements by DOD officials. According to Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – quoted in The Wall Street Journal – said that “if Russia had access to Pentagon information on the Ukrainian offensive, it wouldn't have made it public, and would have used the knowledge to prepare a trap instead." The Journal further noted, "Another document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled.”
Leaked Information Possibly Russian Disinformation Campaign
On numerous occasions, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Mark Milley, has estimated the Russian combat losses, killed or wounded, at around 200,000, with Ukraine's battle casualties at closer to 100,000. The NYT article states, "[O]ne of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths." There is a case to be made by both sides that the leaked documents are fake. In its recent "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said, "Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about the war in Ukraine, indicating continued fear over the prospect of future Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Russian information space.” With the Ukrainian Spring counteroffensive gearing up to take back territory lost in the Donbas region, the suggestion is the document leak is designed to demoralize the Kremlin's forces.
On the other side, the leaks are claimed to be Russian disinformation, as part of a more extensive hybrid warfare operation. Such a campaign would accomplish two ends. First, it attacks the US, NATO, and Ukraine partnership and cohesion. Consequently, it casts doubt on the US's dependability to keep out of the hands of unauthorized personnel the Kyiv government's classified force operations, training, unit structures, and manning. Second, the leak tells the rest of the world that the US is not a reliable partner.
Besides the discrepancy in the casualty data, the numbers associated with Ukrainian force structure and units are often public knowledge or have little intelligence value. Officials inside Ukraine are confident the leak is an effort on Russia's part to influence Ukrainians to distrust their leadership, panic, and doubt information from their government. Whether a legitimate leak of US government sensitive information or Russian disinformation, the Biden national security team needs to determine that quickly.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
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