Groceries and Gas: Are Americans Paying More Under Trump?

As the midterms draw ever nearer, President Donald Trump has frequently touted his economic wins since retaking the White House. But a survey released by NBC News on Sunday suggests most Americans don’t believe him — and that isn’t the only poll that hasn’t gone well for the president lately. Recently, Trump said he inherited high costs from his predecessor but that they’re coming down. So, either prices are coming down, or the economy is in the toilet — but which one is it? What do the numbers actually show?

Uncomfortable Polls for President Trump

On Sunday, September 20, NBC News released the results of its latest survey, and the headline read: “Most voters say Trump has hurt the economy as competitive midterm election looms.” Of the 1,000 people polled between September 11 and 15, more than half said that economic conditions were made worse by the president’s policies. Only about a quarter said the economy was better off, and even fewer said it hasn’t really been affected.

That same poll leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to the president's approval rating, and when asked which party they would rather see control Congress after the election, more respondents said Democratic than Republican.

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So, who did NBC ask? Well, the respondent pool is slightly skewed toward Democrats, but this isn’t the only poll with negative overall results for Mr. Trump. The president’s approval rating, specifically among “very conservative” Americans, fell to 76% this month, according to a poll conducted by Marquette Law School.

By the Numbers – Are We Paying More or Less?

So the polling doesn’t look so hot right now. Okay, well, how is the economy actually doing? The famous expression in American politics is: “It’s the economy, stupid.” But that might mean different things to different people.

As Liberty Nation News’ Andrew Moran recently reported, annual core inflation was above 3% when the Fed lowered interest rates right before the 2024 presidential election. Now, after nearly two years of Trump, that number sits at 2.4% - the lowest it has been since March of 2021.

Okay, so inflation is looking a little better. How about fuel prices? With Trump’s war in Iran dragging on, surely we’re feeling the pain at the pump. Well, turns out that’s a bit of a mixed bag. Yes, gas is high right now — but it isn’t actually as high as it has been. The worst price we’ve seen at the pump under this presidency was a national average of $4.56 in May of this year, several months into the fight against Iran. But, as LNN reported earlier this week, the price of gas is actually down a little from that, with a national average of $4.4386 as of September 17. And even that high several months ago was lower than Biden’s record of $5 a gallon.

“I inherited very, very high costs, and they’re all coming down now,” Trump told Fox News in an interview last month. “The food, the groceries, it’s all coming down.” That’s the claim, which, of course, the establishment media was quick to fact-check and criticize. “With a few exceptions, prices have been going up since Trump began his second term in January 2025, official federal data shows,” according to PolitiFact.

As seems to be the case with most things, the actual nonpartisan truth is a bit messier than either side wants to admit. Tracking Bureau of Labor Statistics data, we can look at the actual cost of specific grocery and household items and how those prices fluctuate over time.

The average price of a loaf of bread has fallen about ten cents since Trump took office, while a one-pound block of cheddar rose in that same span almost a dollar. Beef is a big one in the news — and prices have been on the rise for around three years. Since President Trump took back the White House, a pound of ground chuck has gone up more than a dollar — though it is currently down from June’s high. Then there’s chicken. The price of poultry is up about 30% from when Biden took office in 2021 — but it’s down a few cents so far under Trump.

Eggs look great for Trump. Yes, the five-year chart looks a little crazy, what with the two eggmageddon spikes of early 2023 and 2025. But the one-year chart under Trump shows the price fell by more than half. Coffee is down from its high in April, but it’s up almost $2 a pound from when Biden left office. Toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, and other paper goods are tracked together by the BLS, not separately. In what is news to probably no one, this category is up quite a bit from the pandemic. In the last year, however, they’ve been pretty stable, with average prices only increasing by about 0.1%. Milk, though, has risen about 20 cents a gallon since Trump took office.

So when it comes to what people really feel directly — the bill at the grocery store and the gas pump — are we better or worse off than when Trump took over, or before he got involved in Iran? The truth isn’t quite as clean as the soundbites. Then again, it probably isn’t as important, either. Come election day, perception is reality.