While the rest of the world was worried about a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was more concerned about its impact on the environment.

Only hours before the invasion began, Kerry expressed concern about “trying to change boundaries of international law by force,” but then went on to add, “I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.” He explained that a war might mean Russia would lose focus on mitigating climate change and warned, “In the northern part of his country, they used to live on 66 percent of the nation that was over frozen land. Now it’s thawing, and his infrastructure is at risk, and the people of Russia are at risk.”

Out of Touch

Kerry’s statement is interesting because it appears to be heartfelt and genuine and gives a unique insight into the mindset of one of the government’s top climate bureaucrats. Rather than being primarily worried about a potential World War III – possibly involving nuclear weapons, destabilizing the world economy, and social instability rippling through the political systems – he regards climate change as a more significant threat.

The contrast with reality could hardly be sharper. Former Second Under-Secretary of Science for Barack Obama, Dr. Steven Koonin, recently published the best-selling book, Unsettled, in which he carefully reviews the science presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (I.P.C.C.) and other scientific institutions. In that book, he documents that even if the most severe scenario plays out, it would cause a 10% reduction in G.D.P. by the year 2100 – that is not 10% per year but in total.

It means that with a 2% annual G.D.P. growth, the U.S. economy would be delayed by five years due to damage from climate change compared to the best-case scenario. Rather than reaching a $15 trillion G.D.P. in 2100, Americans will have to wait until 2105.

John Kerry (Photo by Riccardo Savi/Getty Images for Concordia Summit)

Koonin points out that this estimate is not based on conspiracy theories or fringe theories; it is mainstream science. By comparison, this loss is less than the financial pain politicians inflicted on the world to combat COVID-19. It’s a serious issue but not an existential threat. Thus, Kerry reveals that he has no understanding of the correct scale of climate change.

Russian Disinformation

The odds of Russia being influenced by Kerry’s stern warnings about a thawing tundra are, much like the probability of climate disaster, vanishingly small. Russia’s climate model is the only one that has correctly predicted the pause in warming in recent decades. It has done so by assuming that the human contribution is insignificant. Thus, the Russian scientists advising President Vladimir Putin probably tell him climate change is not a crisis.

That hasn’t stopped Russia from trying to scare the West. In 2014, then-Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned the world of a Russian disinformation campaign about fracking to keep Europe and the world reliant on its gas. After all, Russia is committed to Russia – and to selling gas – not combatting climate change.

~ Read more from Caroline Adana.