On Friday, June 13, Israel launched a campaign of coordinated, well-planned attacks on military and nuclear research targets in Iran, deploying warplanes and drones that had been previously smuggled into the country. The goal: Destroy entirely Iran’s capability of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran struck back, of course, firing missiles into residential areas of Israel. The back-and-forth attacks have continued for several days now. Is an end in sight? And what does this mean for the region and the wider world?
To answer those questions and more, we turn to Liberty Nation News National Security Correspondent Dave Patterson, a retired US Air Force pilot and former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller.
Israel and the Existential Threat
James Fite: In an interview with Brett Baier of Fox News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Iran’s rush to achieve nuclear weapons an existential crisis for his nation and declared there would be no second Holocaust. Therein lies his explanation for why he launched the campaign. But, given that reasoning, where does it end? And what do Israel and Iran look like in the aftermath?
Dave Patterson: As the Prime Minister explained, the conflict with Iran, specifically, ends when two objectives are accomplished. First, Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. That means there is no refining capability and no nuclear weapon manufacturing capability. Second, Israel intends to destroy Iran’s capacity to produce ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, both long- and medium-range. Currently, Iran is on track to produce approximately 3,600 ballistic missiles per year, and by the end of six years, they would have an inventory of 20,000, according to Netanyahu.
James: How are Israel’s attacks on Iran and Iran’s attacks on Israel different? What’s being used, what are the targets, and which side seems to be making the most headway?
Dave: Herein lies the fundamental difference between a terrorist nation like Iran, whose purpose is to sow fear and terror into the civilian population, counting on people to persuade the country's leadership into capitulating, and Israel’s focus on military targets. Iran's modestly accurate ballistic missiles have been indiscriminately hitting populated areas where innocent civilians reside, and Israel, using precision guided weapons, has been targeting nuclear technology development sites, ballistic missile warehouses, launchers, and production facilities. Israel has also been carefully killing Iran's military leadership and atomic scientists. Most recently, Israeli weapons have taken out oil storage facilities.
The parallel Netanyahu and the US would draw is the difference between Iran's evil intent and Israel's self-defense intent. Israel has proven to be the more powerful of the two and is making the most progress.
Israel vs Iran, the Saga Continues
James: Israel carried out a third day of attacks on Iran with Iran continuing to fire back on Sunday, June 15. Iran now says, however, that they will stop the attacks if Israel agrees to do the same. Does it seem peace is on the horizon – or has Iran waited too long and missed its chance?
Dave: President Trump indicated the US was still interested in a deal to eliminate Iran's nuclear ambitions and suggested that the beating Iran took in the first wave of airstrikes and Mossad attacks should be motivation for Tehran to re-engage with the negotiations. Iran's offer has to be accompanied by a solid show of Tehran's intention to stop refining uranium, disassemble what centrifuges there are left, and close down ballistic missile development and production.
It is essentially the offer the US has had on the table that Iran has rejected. Removing the ballistic missile threat is extremely important for the defense of Israel, and it was one of the conditions the Obama administration's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) completely ignored, which has proved a naïve and dangerous oversight. This omission was one of the significant reasons President Trump '45 pulled the US out of the agreement.
James: Just how close does it seem Iran really was to achieving nuclear capability? And, were Iran allowed to do so, what might it mean for the rest of the world?
Dave: There are conflicting reports. The evidence worth noting is that the International Atomic Energy Commission, in its March 2025 report, criticized Iran for the first time for not complying with the JCPOA inspection protocols. It estimated that the Iranians could enrich enough uranium to build one bomb in about a week but would need several months to produce a warhead. Israeli intelligence, which, as we've seen, is very good at what they do, probably supported the Israeli PM's assessment that Iran, at the time of the June 12-13 attack, was likely to be days to weeks away from enriching uranium to weapons-grade 90% for a single warhead.
Israel did itself, the Middle East, the United States, and the rest of the world an immense favor in destroying as much of Tehran's nuclear weapon capability as it did. It’s safe to say, without the Israeli intervention, Iran would have had nuclear weapons within six months. With a nuclear weapon, Iran would have at worst used it against Israel at the first provocation, and at best caused a nuclear proliferation among its neighbors.
James: Given Israel’s ongoing campaign against Hamas in Gaza, can it afford to maintain both?
Dave: The real question is, can Israel afford not to maintain its military pressure against both Iran and Hamas in Gaza? Don't forget the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The root cause and critical node in making Israel's job a little easier is taking out Iran's ability to supply proxies, support Houthis, build ballistic missiles, and continue with a nuclear program. It appears that within its resources, Israel is making incremental progress in doing just that.
James: Perhaps the biggest question on the minds of Americans, Dave, is what is the likelihood the US will get involved in more than just the defense against unmanned drones and missiles – or, on the side of Iran, Russia?
Dave: Both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have put Iran on notice not to endanger US forces and interests in the Middle East. That would be the tipping point if Iran, in a moment of sheer insanity, would itself or, through one of its proxies, attack US military or diplomatic personnel. Some fear if that were to happen, Russia and China might be obliged to enter into the fray. That is unlikely. Both Russia and China have everything to lose and nothing to gain. The US is being effective at a distance, assisting Israel with air defense and supplying weapons.
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