What is Russia trying to do? While engaged in its brutal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin is widening its aggression toward NATO countries. This convergence of highly dangerous military activities could easily escalate into a larger European conflict. Russia and Belarus are engaged in an expansive military exercise called ZAPAD 2025 on the northern borders of Ukraine and Poland. Although smaller in scope, this training resembles ZAPAD 2021, which prepared Kremlin forces for attacking Ukraine.
Russia Repeatedly Breached NATO Airspace
As a prelude to ZAPAD 2025, a Russian military exercise with Belarus, Moscow “allowed” its drones to breach NATO nations’ airspace. Reports from Poland described the breach as occurring during a massive drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile assault on Ukraine Sept. 9-10. About 20 Moscow drones entered Poland’s airspace, with some penetrating as far as 155 miles. For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO allies engaged Russian drones and destroyed them. Polish F-16 Falcons and Dutch F-35 Lightning IIs shot down numerous drones. Moscow’s rogue drones intruded into Romanian airspace Sept. 14, prompting Romania to scramble two F-16s to intercept the Russian drones that penetrated approximately six miles into Romania. The drones spent 50 minutes in NATO airspace.
NATO allies have taken these incursions and overflights of alliance countries seriously. In a posting on X, a NATO Allied Command Operations spokesman said:
“This is the first time NATO aircraft have engaged potential threats in Allied airspace. The Netherlands and Poland were not, however, the only countries to respond. German Patriots in Poland were placed on alert, and an Italian airborne early warning aircraft and an aerial refueler from NATO’s Multinational Mult-Role Tanker Transport aircraft fleet [were] launched.”
NATO’s rapid response is encouraging. If Russia is testing the alliance’s resolve, the NATO members rose to the occasion. As a well-known Washington, DC, newspaper explained, “Poland is a NATO ally and as such enjoys treaty guarantees. Guarantees are nothing but pieces of paper — until they are tested. Regardless of whether the drones were deliberately sent into Polish airspace, they have become a test of allied resolve.”
Additionally, NATO demonstrated its readiness to counter Russia’s war-like moves. Shortly after the drones breached NATO airspace, the alliance implemented Operation Eastern Sentry, rapidly deploying “Danish F-16 fighters and an anti-air warfare frigate, France said it will contribute three Rafale jets, and Germany said it will deploy four Eurofighter aircraft,” ABC News reported. Operation Eastern Sentry will also establish a permanent presence of NATO forces in Poland. The Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) publication Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment observed, “Polish President Karol Nawrocki signed a decree on September 14 authorizing NATO to deploy another foreign contingent to Poland as reinforcements, specifically in support of the Operation Eastern Sentry.”
Meanwhile, ZAPAD 2025 is ongoing. Belarusian and Russian forces are training together to thwart any potential invasion of Belarus by NATO forces. ZAPAD 2025 involves approximately 13,000 soldiers, with an emphasis on company-level tactics during a period of heightened tensions. What to watch for is how many troops remain on the Belarusian border with Ukraine at the end of the exercise.
As tensions rise between NATO and Russia, ISW explained on Sept. 12: “Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin claimed in early August 2025 that the Zapad-2025 exercises would focus on the use of nuclear weapons and Oreshnik missiles in response to militarization on Belarus’s western and northern borders and as part of strategic deterrence.” That threat was quickly walked back, and subsequent press statements claim the exercise will focus on purely defensive operations to protect Russia’s western border and Belarus’ southern border.
Events Are Making Possible a Wider Conflict
What appears to be a perfect stew of misunderstandings and miscalculations is bubbling up into a conflict that is spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders. The question is, why is Russia becoming so hostile toward NATO now? Negotiations to bring the war in Ukraine to a close, while on life support, are still ongoing. One or two drones wandering off course into Poland is one thing. However, flying 19-20 drones 155 miles into Poland is not an error. Poland believed the incursion to be serious enough to request on Sept. 10 an Article 4 determination, a formal process in which an alliance member raises serious concerns about its security. This is one step below invoking Article 5, which treats an attack on one NATO member as an attack on all.
What is Putin trying to prove? If he is trying to demonstrate that Russia is strong enough to bombard Ukraine with hundreds of cruise missiles, drones, and ballistic missiles nightly while participating in an anti-access exercise on the Belarusian border, he did that. But the consequence has been more unity in the NATO alliance. Even though Russia can reach deep into a NATO member’s territory, every drone was shot down or crashed. The United States and the rest of NATO would do well to continue to project unity and resolve. That is something Putin truly fears.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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