Is Iran on the Brink of Regime Change?

There have been more than 280 protests across 27 of the 31 provinces in Iran over the last couple of weeks. For the most part, the demonstrations have been peaceful. However, they have been steadily intensifying. On the evening of January 8, the protesters turned to burning cars and buildings in the capital city of Tehran, prompting extremely repressive measures by security forces. According to the Associated Press, the violence has left “at least 62 people” dead, while more than 2,300 others have been detained by security forces.

Trump Clearly Warns Iran

There has been no confusion over what President Donald Trump thinks about the unrest in Iran. On January 2, the US president explained in an X posting: “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter! - President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Iran has failed in the past to heed the US commander-in-chief when he speaks directly, and it would seem in Tehran’s best interest to pay attention now. Iran should take a lesson from the recent law enforcement extraction with force of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He didn’t believe President Trump and look how far that got him…an all-expenses-paid trip to a Brooklyn, New York jail.

In a January 7 interview, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) expressed how many Americans view the protests, telling Iran International that “the American people back ongoing protests in the country against theocratic rule and credited President Donald Trump for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June.” Cruz went on to say: “I absolutely support the [Iranian] people. They’re rising up against a tyrannical regime, a regime that is theocratic, that is corrupt, that murders and tortures the Iranian people, and the American people are cheering for the people of Iran to shake free this yoke of oppression, to have a free and democratic society."

Iran heeding the US chief executive’s warning is unlikely. According to The New York Times, “Iran’s supreme leader vowed on Friday [January 9] that the government would ‘not back down’ in the face of protests that have rocked the country in recent weeks, as the country’s leadership threatened to escalate its crackdown on demonstrators.” The Iranian government, in order to clamp down on information portraying how bad the protests are and how violent the responses have been, shut down all internet and communications services. A Reuters report asserted: “Iran was largely cut off from the outside world on Friday after authorities blacked out the internet to curb growing unrest, as video footage showed buildings, cars, and buses ablaze in anti-government protests raging through the streets of several cities.” Again from the NYT, following the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comments: “…Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that ‘saboteurs’ would be shown ‘no leniency.’”

The protests were prompted by economic pressures brought on by the precipitous devaluation of the rial, Iran’s currency, and rampant inflation has made food and other essentials too expensive. Reuters explained that though the protests were initially “focused on the economy, with the rial currency losing half its value against the dollar last year and inflation topping 40% in December, they have morphed to include slogans aimed directly at the authorities.” (The rial is 1.4 million to the $1.) At one protest rally, a woman was reported to have yelled "Death to Khamenei!" This level of anger among protesters in Iran is unusual. However, emotions are running very high. In the town of Abdanan on January 5, the local police reportedly joined the protesters.

Police Officers Join Protesters

When security forces break ranks with the Iranian authorities, it indicates that the government in Tehran may be in a more precarious position than it would like the rest of the world to believe. The last time there was a reasonable chance of regime change in Iran was in 2009, when the “Green Movement” protests broke out over what was believed to be a fraudulent election that put hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad back in the Iranian presidency. President Barack Obama seemed to do little to help the protesters who numbered in the millions at the peak of the movement.

Things are different now. President Donald Trump is in charge of US foreign policy and has demonstrated a penchant to make good on both his promises and his threats. The Iranian people are clearly unhappy with the economic straits the mullahs have put them in and have taken to the streets to express their dissatisfaction. The test will be whether the Trump administration will - or even should - help turn the current unrest into something positive for the Iranian people and the Middle East.

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The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.