Has the Department of Defense found a new shiny object in artificial intelligence for its wish list? Weapon systems have come a long way since "fire and forget" was a new concept. Now you fire, and if you forget, the weapon system reminds you what it's doing and why. Clearly, the Pentagon is serious about getting out front of China with AI. Defense Department budgeteers have put twice as much money in the President's Budget Request for the tech as it did in FY2022. In the category of research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E), the overall increase over FY 2023 was 4%, to $145 billion, with the "0s" and "1s" community requesting $1.8 billion for AI as the Department continues "to modernize and innovate."
Competition for Dominance in AI
The Pentagon recognizes the resources the People's Republic of China (PRC) is expending to take the lead in AI and is determined to stay ahead. "New applications of artificial intelligence, quantum science, autonomous weapons designs, biotechnology, and space technologies can change traditional, kinetic military conflict, and disrupt the US supply chain and logistics operations vital to maintaining combat credibility," the Defense Budget Overview, United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2024 Budget Request said describing the PRC threat. With a sense of urgency, the Pentagon adds to its budget request overview, "The timely appropriations passage further allows DoD to continue the innovation path with priorities such as cyber, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic programs."
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increased its spending on defense considerably, and though it's not easy to know exactly how much is devoted to advanced technologies and specifically AI, most experts believe it to be a substantial amount. Press reports put the figure at around $1.6 billion. "It's difficult to gauge if the US is ahead or behind AI spending because public estimates on Chinese spending are unverified, but we should assume China and the US are in a race to achieve superiority in the use of AI for national security purposes," Parham Eftekhari, Executive Vice President of CyberRisk Alliance, told Fox News. In the category of putting money where mouths are, not only has the Defense Department requested more funding for developing AI programs but also established a policy directive to govern the use of AI – specifically in developing autonomous weapon systems.
There is a growing concern that, left without adult supervision, AI will go places more threatening to the US warfighter than the enemy, possibly. In the area of autonomous weapon systems, there is potential for machines to engage the target by error or by design that was not what was intended or out of sequence with the flow of the battle. In a January 25, 2023, published regulation titled Autonomy in Weapon Systems, the policy statement begins, "Autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems will be designed to allow commanders and operators to exercise appropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force." With the ubiquity of AI in nearly every piece of military electronics and sophisticated weaponry, providing regulatory oversight is a prudent course of action.
AI as a Decision-Making Tool Has Scary Implications
(Photo by Artur Widak/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
With the proliferation of AI arises a scarier issue. The use of machine intelligence has demonstrated the capability to reduce decision-making time in various conflict scenarios. For example, whether or not to use a conventional armored brigade in a continuing combat engagement can be greatly accelerated with far more variables considered using AI. If the machine-generated solution proves ineffective or fails, the soldier on the ground can recover and win the day. But what if AI is used to evaluate the outcome of a conflict where the solution is less recoverable? "… AI-driven software could lead the major powers to cut down their decision-making window to minutes instead of hours or days. They could come to depend far too much on AI strategic and tactical assessments, even when it comes to nuclear war," Michael Hirsh offered in his Foreign Policy analysis "How AI Will Revolutionize Warfare."
Controlling the vast number of applications for AI so that its value is applied effectively without unintended consequences, whether in weaponry or command and control, or developing strategy papers, requires thoughtful people's involvement. Right now, the concern is keeping up with the CCP so as not to be at the mercy of an enemy with smarter weapons and faster decision-making capability. But perhaps the most dangerous end state is the over-reliance on AI leading to a machine-generated decision from which neither Beijing nor Washington can recover. Regardless of the amount spent, AI will not replace thoughtful human decision-makers any time soon.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
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