Mark Carney and the Liberals will form the next minority Canadian government. The April 28 election results would have been unthinkable a few months ago. Before Christmas, the polling data made it clear: nobody supported then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal brand had been decimated, and Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives would form a majority government. However, a concoction of President Donald Trump trying to make Canada the 51st state and the Grits choosing a new leader dashed the prospects of a Tory comeback and resurrected the Liberal Party.
What now? Let’s look at some key takeaways of the federal election north of the border.
Liberals Form Government
While the votes are still being counted, Canadians have gotten out of bed with a general idea of the House of Commons' 343-seat makeup. Carney will manage 167 Liberal Members of Parliament. The Conservatives will have 145 seats, followed by the Bloc Québécois (23), the New Democratic Party (seven), and the Green Party (one).
This is just good enough for a minority government, forcing Carney to extend his hand across the aisle and form a coalition featuring the Bloc, New Democrats, and Greens. For the Bloc, this is an enticing proposal (see below), but for the New Democrats and Greens, they have very little to gain from keeping the Grits in power for another few years.
Ottawa will have some busy housekeeping in the coming weeks.
Liberal Futures
In the late stages of the Canadian election campaign, an image of a retired Liberal supporter in Ontario went viral. The picture showed the individual attending a Carney rally and flipping the double bird. It quickly became a symbol for older left-leaning Canadians: they got theirs, and everyone else can sip on a Double-Double from Tim Hortons while riding public transit.
It turns out that Trump Derangement Syndrome was vital in how older voters chose their riding’s candidate at the ballot box.
According to Ipsos Reid, the most important issues for Canadians overall were affordability and the cost of living (38%), the economy (29%), and housing (25%). A deeper examination of the exit poll data depicts a significant divide between the young and old. For Baby Boomers, President Trump was the top issue driving their vote. For Generation Zers, inflation was the chief subject.
The cost-of-living crisis has threatened younger Canadians’ future, whether they live in Toronto or Halifax. Homeownership is out of reach for younger generations, groceries are unaffordable, and the labor market is quickly spiraling out of control. These were all genuine issues before Trump’s second term.
An abysmal decade-long record ostensibly did not dissuade Baby Boomer voters.
Separatists Are the Kingmakers
Yves-François Blanchet, head of the separatist Bloc Québécois, will be the kingmaker in the next session of the House of Commons. Because the Liberals fell short of a majority, the prime minister-designate will need to seek the assistance of the Bloc to survive. Blanchet can essentially obtain anything he wants, outside of independence.
But what does this mean? Blanchet can advocate policies tailored to Quebec's needs, including aid to local industries, supporting innovation, and protecting the French language. His remarks in the campaign's closing days offered insights into how the leader views the country.
"We are, whether we like it or not, part of an artificial country with very little meaning, called Canada," Blanchet said during a campaign stop on April 25. “It’s a foreign parliament because this nation is not mine. I don’t feel more at ease in the Canadian Parliament than (Alberta Premier Danielle) Smith would feel at ease in the National Assembly of Quebec."
Nobody Likes the New Democrats
Fifteen years ago, Canada experienced an "Orange Crush," a term to describe the influx of New Democrat politicians. In 2025, it is safe to say that many Canadians do not maintain the same level of ebullience over the New Democratic Party (NDP). After propping up Trudeau’s Liberals at every turn, the NDP might be getting its electoral comeuppance.
Across the country, NDP incumbents lost to Liberals and Conservatives. And this included Jagmeet Singh, the party’s leader, who failed to be re-elected in his British Columbia riding (district).
The NDP’s future is bleak, losing official party status. Before Parliament was dissolved, New Democrats held 24 seats. In the aftermath of the election, the party has fallen short of the 12-seat threshold, meaning that the benefits of taxpayer-funded resources will be tossed out the window and participation on the House floor will be diminished.
The irony out of this is that the anti-Caucasian, anti-male, anti-banker wing of Canadian politics voted for the straight white male banker in the April election.
Will Pierre Fight Another Day?
Three leaders, three elections, three losses—this is the Tories' record over the last decade. The difference this time, however, is that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives fumbled the ball – or puck – after ordering new drapes for 11 Sussex Drive.
At the same time, while the results were disappointing for right-wing voters, they were not disastrous. The Conservatives captured about 44% of the vote, just shy of the Liberals' roughly 46% – the last time the Tories formed government, they did so with about 39% of the popular vote. The party increased its representation in Ottawa by about 30 seats and flipped a few ridings.
Despite the increase in vote share, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre failed to win his own seat in Ottawa-area, Carleton, meaning Tories are on the hunt for a new leader.
Still, a blue wave failed to materialize, leaving a minority and likely fractious coalition. President Trump can sit back and seize upon the fact that he is dealing with a prime minister heading a fragile government.
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