In the wake of her elevation to the top spot on the Democrat ticket, buoyed by a DNC lovefest and a winning debate performance, Kamala Harris appeared to have the presidency within her grasp. The much-touted “Kamalamentum” was in full swing, and she could do no wrong – although much of this perceived sure-footedness resulted from her failing to engage the press in a meaningful manner. But after former President Barack Obama left the stage in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, last night, October 10, a palpable sense of deflation diffused the electoral landscape. Has Kamalamentum reached its apogee? And is there anywhere to go but down?
Pundits Predict Trouble
CNN’s Wolf Blitzer encapsulated the stalling campaign of Kamala Harris in a brief but damning denouement on Thursday. He said:
“I’m hearing this from top Republicans and top Democrats, that Harris seems to have stalled out a bit in the last couple of weeks. You know, she had a great rollout, great convention, very successful debate, but she seemed to have plateaued. One top Republican said two weeks ago, I would’ve said that she was a slight favorite. He said today I’d say Trump is a slight favorite.”
His sentiment here was echoed by colleague Chris Wallace (formerly of Fox News), who said, prior to Obama’s PA stump efforts, that Harris’ campaign had “plateaued,” and he suggested that heavy hitters were needed to shore up falling support. “Barack Obama is probably the most popular democrat in the country," he said. "I think you see him, he’s gonna be in Pittsburgh tonight you’ll see him in a lot of urban areas, obviously, trying to help Kamala Harris with a weakness she has with younger below 50 black men."
And he was 100% correct that Obama made that pitch.
Obama Jumps on Race
One of Joe Biden’s most abiding gaffes in the 2020 campaign was to insist that “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” It was a crass statement that he apologized for soon after. But it was not a sentiment that Barack Obama was afraid to adopt during his campaign visit to Pittsburgh. He said, “We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running.”
“Now, I also want to say that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,” Obama continued. “So if you don’t mind, just for a second, I’m going to speak to y’all, and say that when you have a choice that is this clear, when, on the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences.”
“She’s had to work harder and do more and overcome and achieve the second highest office in the land,” he argued.
Obama remains one of the most popular living Democratic politicians; his influence is immense. But the fact that he has to speak directly to one subsection of one subsection in order to boost Kamala’s chances of winning speaks volumes.
A Kamalamentum Deficit
But don’t just take the openly left-leaning media pundits’ word for the de-escalation of Kamala’s campaign momentum; consider the polling. This election will be won or lost in a handful of seven crucial swing states. In the wake of the Democratic National Convention, Harris overtook Trump in an average of battleground polling, a lead she continued to enjoy for a whole month. During this heady period of enthusiasm, she held the top spot in four of the seven states and was tied in another. Not anymore.
As of today, October 11, Donald Trump holds an average lead across the battlegrounds of 0.3%. He ranks first in five of the seven, effectively cutting Harris off from the required 270 Electoral College votes. But her problem extends beyond swing state voters and into American demographics.
The Latino Vote Cuts Loose
The Latino vote has been a Democrat lock for at least the last 12 elections. In fact, for the GOP, the best performance with this coveted group was George W. Bush when he managed to earn 44% in 2004 – even Ronald Reagan’s 49-state landslide in 1984 only mustered 37% against Walter Mondale’s 61%. In 2016, Trump won 29% of this bloc and improved just three points by the 2020 election.
And yet, the times appear to be a-changin’.
The latest poll from NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC shows Harris has a 54%-40% advantage. That’s a major swing this close to Election Day. Clarissa Martinez De Castro, VP of the Latino Vote Initiative at UnidosUS (which has endorsed Harris), told NBC News that:
“Republicans don’t need to win a majority of this electorate, so they can be a lot more surgical with their efforts. Democrats need to get at least the historic 60% or so that they’ve received from this electorate.”
She continued, “One in five Latino voters in this election are going to be voting for the first time, so they’re forming their opinions about the candidates. Almost 40% are new since 2016.”
Notably, Team Harris is spending massively on this group, with a combination of targeted advertising, high-profile surrogates, and a major ground campaign. Trump, on the other hand, is not. Yet, the momentum still appears to be slipping toward the former president.
Is Black America on the Move?
The NAACP released polling that showed more than 25% of black men under the age of 50 plan to vote for Donald Trump this November. However, this survey was carried out in early August, before Harris was even confirmed as the nominee and well before her campaign began to look tarnished. Reuters reports:
“Top issues for Black voters were the economy, crime, and public safety, the survey found, with the cost of food and groceries, housing, and utilities being the biggest economic stressors. Eighty-two percent of Black men under 50 listed economic issues among the most important issues facing the country today, compared with 75% of Black women of all ages.”
This suggests that treating black Americans as a separate bloc when it comes to issues that motivate ballot choice is a foolhardy move. Like all Americans, people are driven by economic factors, what’s best for their families, their wallets, and their long-term prosperity. By focusing on race, the Harris campaign may be doing itself damage. The Democratic nominee will – without a doubt – take the lion’s share of the black vote, but elections are all about margins, and with a significant minority of younger black men looking to Trump, this could prove decisive in not only the presidential race but also the balance of power in the House.
A Dirge to Joy
Kamala Harris had hoped that her mere existence as the Democratic nominee would be enough to surf into the White House on a wave of joy and hope. In the days following her anointment, and the poll boosts from a positive debate result, she looked supercharged and ready to sweep aside Trump’s ambitions. Now, Kamalamentum, so focused on good vibes, appears unable to withstand the crushing weight of reality. She is campaigning in a divided country and yet continues to stoke division. She is reliant on her years in the VP office without wanting to connect herself to an administration that has become deeply unpopular. Ultimately, she gambled that the American public would not mind her ducking the press in favor of softball media showcases.
In all these areas, she is being proven wrong. The thing about momentum is that – unless you live in a vacuum – it can only carry you so far. At some point, you must put your feet on the ground and start pushing.
