Are Hispanic Voters Gravitating to the GOP?

Most people who observe, promote, or play in politics put voters into useful categories by demographic: race, creed, color, and geography. Unfortunately, it makes the campaigning process a bit easier to lump folks together and then believe it to be fact. For example, since the Kennedy era, most Latinos voters routinely gravitated toward the Democratic Party. But it appears after the election of Donald Trump in 2016, Hispanic voters are opting to join and vocally support the Republican Party. And with a few more mutinies, the Democrats may be in for a world of hurt sooner, rather than later.

In a recent New York Times/Siena poll, Hispanic voters are in favor of capitalism and not so much appreciative of the job President Joe Biden has been doing. In addition, a daunting 51% say the country is on the wrong track, 47% do not like the idea of socialism, a majority support Black Lives Matter, and are equally divided on Blue Lives Matter. And to top it off, 71% say they will vote in the midterm elections. The only positive news for Democrats discovered by this poll is that most Hispanics (51%) don’t much like Donald Trump either – but they enjoyed Trump’s economic gains.

Pre-Pandemic Gains

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won over Hispanic voters – not by carrying hot sauce in her purse as much as just being the Democratic candidate. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Hispanics by 26 points. President Trump championed the legal Hispanic communities and simultaneously supported a border wall. The hard line on illegal immigrants validated a Democratic candidate.

But those same voters embraced the positive and successful few years of the Trump presidency. As a result, Latino families found themselves on the receiving end of new prosperity in their communities. In fact, Latino unemployment dropped to a historic low point, and faster wealth accumulation outpaced both black and white families. And with a different work ethic, Latinos found the availability of good employment reason enough to change their party affiliation.

The numbers are telling. Joe Biden received 750,000 fewer Hispanic votes than Hillary accrued in 2016. Liberty Nation’s Senior Political Analyst, Tim Donner, saw the writing on the wall last winter, referring to a poll released by the Wall Street Journal:

The survey numbers are stark: 37% support for each party in the 2022 midterms, the rest undecided. Perhaps even more stunning is that, in a hypothetical rematch, Joe Biden would finish just one point ahead of Donald Trump – 44% to 43% – among Hispanics. And it was not racism or other social issues constantly attached to these communities by race-obsessed media which registered as the main source of concern. It was, like everyone else, the economy.”

And we are witnessing precisely that: American Latinos want the American Dream. And the party that seems to embrace that desire has come a-courting.

Hispanic Voters – A Force to be Reckoned With

The Latino population is outpacing every other ethnicity, increasing 11.9 million from 50.7 million in 2010 to 62.6 million in 2021. And, on average, Hispanics are younger than other racial or ethnic voting groups. Then add in this fact; around a million Latinos age into voter eligibility every year. That accumulates a lot of voting power. So, it’s no wonder both parties want to harness that energy.

So far, the Democrats remain ahead in Latino support. But having a slight edge won’t get the job done in midterms and, more importantly, the 2024 presidential election. Democrats must win by more than the 26-point spread Joe Biden enjoyed, or it’s Vaya con Dios to the left and Bienvenidos to the Republican Party.