For the past 18 months, China has been ramping up its aggressive behavior toward its neighbors. Hostile operations directed at Taiwan are almost a daily occurrence. Many believe these large-scale military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan Island are a prelude to an amphibious invasion in the not-too-distant future. Some have speculated that as early as 2027, China will move against the Taipei government.
China Is Readying Its Military for War
Few would question the idea that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is on a war footing. The Chinese have increased their defense spending by 7.2% for 2025, resulting in a consistent annual increase of around 7% over the past two years. More important than what the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is spending on its military is what the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is actually doing. The most recent Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community reported:
"A major portion of China's military modernization efforts is focused on developing counter-intervention capabilities tailored against all aspects of US and allied military operations in the Pacific. Beijing will focus on meeting key modernization milestones by 2027 and 2035.
"China’s military operations to project power over Taiwan and its efforts to assert sovereignty claims in the South and East China Seas occur routinely with confrontations that increase concern of miscalculations potentially leading to conflict."
However, miscalculations do not necessarily play a heavy role in the PLA calculus, putting pressure on Taiwan and its neighbors. Late last year, "Chinese forces launched alarming military drills around Taiwan…The Chinese military's Eastern Theater Command surrounded the island from all sides with air and naval forces during the drills," according to the Daily Caller. The PLA has relentlessly probed Taipei's defense, and such operations are not subtle.
Commander, US Strategic Command General Anthony Cotton, speaking at the 2025 16th Annual McAleese "Defense Programs" Conference, warned those in attendance, "Look at China for example…Secretary Xi's [Jinping] directive that China be prepared to seize Taiwan by 2027 has driven CCP investments in land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and infrastructure to support a major buildup of their nuclear forces."
Regional reporting indicates the PLA has been involved in 8 to13 major threatening operations over the past year. Typical of the military exercises carried out by the PLA were drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Clearly, such behavior does not ease tensions in the region and is probably not designed to. On April 1, Reuters painted a grim picture of CCP's intentions, observing,
"China staged military drills off Taiwan's north, south, and east coasts on Tuesday [April 1] as a ‘stern warning’ against separatism and called Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a ‘parasite,’ as Taiwan sent warships to respond to China's navy approaching its shores…
"China's military deployed ships, aircraft, and artillery to practice blockading the island, strikes on ground and maritime targets, and air interception to 'test forces' coordination in combat,' Beijing's Eastern Theatre Command said in a statement."
In addition to operational drills around Taiwan, the PLA Navy has been practicing the use of uniquely designed amphibious landing craft. Recent satellite images have revealed Chinese special-purpose barges lined up bow to stern. The links between the vessels are bridge-like, forming a roadway from deeper waters to a beach. "The vessels' debut suggests that China's People's Liberation Army may be a step closer to being able to land tens of thousands of troops and their weapons and vehicles on Taiwan's shores, experts say," The New York Times reported.
Capability Questions
There are those who question the capability of the PRC to pull off an invasion of Taiwan at all. Ely Rattner, former assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs during the Biden administration, believes that China’s "goal of having [its] military ready to carry out a ‘short, sharp invasion’ of Taiwan by 2027 ‘is not possible right now.'” Rattner opines that the PLA has not shown its ability to fight an urban war depending on an extended "long-distance" logistics chain. This is a shortfall that the PLA is rapidly working to address.
Whether it's 2027 or later, left unattended, China will grow in military capability to achieve its military and economic world dominance. Invading Taiwan will be a steppingstone to achieving that objective.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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