For decades in America, most of the youth vote leaned toward the Democrats. Generation X propelled Bill Clinton to the presidency in 1992, as the then-governor appeared on MTV and The Arsenio Hall Show. Millennials were enamored with Barack Obama in 2008, with the young senator reaching young people online. Learning from his predecessors, President Donald Trump sought members of Generation Z, chiefly young men, by visiting Podcastistan, from The Joe Rogan Experience to This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von.
During the 2026 midterm elections, males 18 to 24 could be voting Democrat.
Young Men Favor Democrats in the Midterms
Prediction markets are projecting that Democrats will win young men. The Polymarket contract asks, "Which party will win young men in the midterms?" As of Sept. 22, the odds indicate Democrats have a 78% chance. This is a sharp reversal from weeks prior, when 63% of traders bet the GOP would hold this demographic.
Likewise, Kalshi suggests the Democrats have a 68% chance of winning young men.
Conventional polling suggests the gap is narrower. The Yale Youth Poll's Spring 2026 survey, for example, shows a three-point lead for the Democrats among young men aged 18 to 22.
Free with the Daily Briefing
85EssaysUnravel the Constitution
Hamilton, Madison & Jay’s complete case for America, free and searchable in the Publius Reader.
Free with the Daily Briefing. Unsubscribe anytime.
Until the 2016 election, males aged 18 to 24 were generally split between Democrats and Republicans during the presidential and midterm cycles. Then Donald Trump descended on his escalator and vowed to remember the forgotten man. For many young men, this message rang loud and clear after they were the target of scorn and derision on college campuses, at the office, or in the mainstream media.
The pendulum gradually swung further right in 2020 and 2022. By 2024, young men joined the big-tent coalition and placed their bets on Trump, who secured a 15-point advantage. In 2026, their dreams of affordability and no new foreign wars may have been dashed, and now they are running back to the other side.
The Left Behind
The August jobs report was huge for President Trump because it highlighted robust payroll growth after months of anemic gains. The US economy created 162,000 new jobs across multiple sectors. The issue was that 98% of the positions added went to women. Additionally, over the past year, employment gains have been concentrated among women.
While real (inflation-adjusted) wage gains had been steadily climbing after Trump's election victory, they have been trending lower because of higher, war-driven headline inflation. About half of young Americans say they're struggling to make ends meet or enjoy little financial security, according to an Institute of Politics Youth Poll.
And Iran is where Trump and Republicans could struggle to retain power in both chambers.
Young people – men and women – have historically opposed major military conflicts. The current conflict in the Middle East is no different. A recent Institute for Global Affairs poll found that 57% of Gen Zers oppose the president's handling of the war in Iran.
The administration’s decision to bomb Iran could be an opportunity for Democrats.
SAM, I Am
After the 2024 presidential election, Democrats began putting together an autopsy of what went wrong. Their conclusion? They do not understand young men. The party had been trying to appeal to this voting bloc during the last election cycle, with Gov. Tim Walz standing over a truck engine for a campaign commercial.
Others suggested the left needed its own Joe Rogan podcaster, which has yet to materialize. Many pundits contended that the party needed to abandon the woke stuff.
Still, the party’s foot soldiers tried to dig deeper into this challenge by launching the Speaking with American Men (SAM) project. This is a two-year, $20 million endeavor to study young men and how to reach them.
“Democrats are seen as weak, whereas Republicans are seen as strong,” Ilyse Hogue, who co-founded the SAM project, told Politico. “Young men also spoke of being invisible to the Democratic coalition, and so you’ve got this weak problem and then you’ve got this, ‘I don’t think they care about me’ problem, and I think the combination is kind of a killer.”
Shortly after the midterms, the United States will be gearing up for the 2028 electoral contest. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is trying to be more masculine by going fly fishing with CNN’s Jake Tapper. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has been sporting a beard lately. Some believe Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) might be most effective at appealing to Gen Z and younger millennials if he decides to enter the primaries.
It’s the Inflation, Stupid
Trump and the Republicans soundly won the 2024 race because Americans were so perturbed by inflation and the overall cost of living. With weeks to go until millions of people head to the voting booth, inflation will be back on the ballot. Prices remain elevated, gas is nearly $4.50 a gallon, and interest rates are the highest in years.
Abortion and MMIW2SLGBTQQIA+ issues might matter more to the female demographic, but the economy and inflation matter most to young men.
.jpg&w=1920&q=75)
