The Democrats have claimed the youth vote since John F. Kennedy brought Camelot to the Swamp. The anti-Vietnam War protests, the civil rights movements, and the assassinations of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and Bobby Kennedy seemed to seal the deal. But hold up a minute. In 2023, the Democrats are enjoying the support of only half of the up-and-coming-of-age electorate: High school senior boys are trending GOP.
This startling news comes from a Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey that dispelled the common narrative pushed by the liberal media that all 18-year-olds are rushing to vote for progressives and Democrats nationwide. The study told a different tale: Only 13% of twelfth-grade boys admit to being liberal. For those unfamiliar with this purveyor of data, MTF has been around since the 1970s, and its sole purpose is to study changes in the attitudes and beliefs of kids in the United States. The MTF site explains:
“The National High School Senior Survey is a repeated series of surveys in which the same segments of the population (8th, 10th, and 12th graders; college students; and young adults) are presented with the same set of questions over a period of years to see how answers change over time.”
Opinions and Suppositions on Senior Boys
Of course, the immediate discourse became why these testosterone-laden teens sought to vote MAGA and beyond. A recent National Public Radio (NPR)/PBS News Hour/Marist poll claims that “38% of both young voters and independents approve of Joe Biden’s job in office. Among rural voters, that number stands at just 28%.” Some speculate that the increase in young males admitting they might be conservative is former President Donald Trump’s bombastic locker-room manner. They can relate to Trump’s speaking style and anti-woke behavior and rhetoric. The conservative attack on “woke” policies is also being fingered as a culprit in the political rewiring of teenage boys.
Conservatives are finally expressing themselves on the woke revolution. Trump is consistently for the little guy in his speeches and attacks the Democrats’ overreach, using past injustices involving race, gender, and LGBTQ+ issues. Some folks think Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has eclipsed the former president with his brand of equality: From addressing school curriculum, the war on Disney, signing restrictive abortion legislation, and defining “woke” to the media, DeSantis has rebranded the term.
Is it all about promoting hypermasculinity to the vulnerable male? “There are really two abiding themes in masculinity: the macho man — Trump’s got that covered — and the good man. And what Democrats need to do is enact the good man, the decent man, the ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ man. The only people I see articulating that are other Republicans, which makes me a little sad as a Democrat,” Joan Williams, a University of California Hastings School of Law professor, told Politico about capturing the male vote.
(Photo by Liao Pan/China News Service via Getty Images)
So, fist-pounding does work? It sure seems to be the case in rural communities. The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) has plenty of research to show that young people in rural communities -- not just boys -- vote and identify as conservative. Kids in cities fall in line with the more liberal mindset. They are raised differently. Firearms are a mainstay for folks whose nearest neighbor is a quarter mile down the road, and kids are taught how to use, clean, and safely store all weaponry. In a 2020 election study, CIRCLE found: “Young white voters from urban areas preferred Biden, 68% to 29%, and those from rural/small towns preferred Trump, 60% to 37%—a 31-point difference.”
Trust the Data?
It was Jean Twenge, author and professor of psychology at San Diego State University, who sparked the macho debate across media platforms and on social media sites. She published the data in a new book, titled Generations, attempting to show the gender gap widening among teen voter ideology and philosophy. “Among liberals, the future is female. And among conservatives, the future is male.” What she didn't tell us, though, is how the necessary-for-success independent swing voters are trending. And that is indeed the future of the 2024 election.
