Just when Iowa had recovered from the last visit by the two GOP titans in the presidential primary race, the state goes and throws its annual Lincoln Day Dinner and brings everyone back to town. Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis will share the stage today, July 28, and each hopes to convince attendees that he is the very image of both “Iowa nice” and able-bodied enough to outlast President Joe Biden on the campaign trail.
It’s the biggest Iowa GOP event of the year, and tickets are sold out, according to the Iowa State GOP. The party starts at 4 p.m. at the Events Center in Des Moines. Per a Secret Service edict, however, the doors lock at 6:30 – and anyone late to the party is out of luck.
Both candidates have spent time in Iowa simultaneously in split-screen moments attempting to force Iowans to pick a team. So far, few elected officials in the Hawkeye state are ready to make a solid endorsement. Asked repeatedly, Iowa’s popular Governor Kim Reynolds has demurred and declined to endorse up to this point. But rumors abound. DeSantis has called Florida “the Iowa of the Southeast.” And Reynolds purrs that Iowa is “the Florida of the North,” which gets tongues wagging. She has been seen an awful lot with Ron DeSantis – which has the Trump camp bristling with perceived betrayal. Reynolds is a necessary ally to win; she took 95 out of Iowa’s 99 counties in the last election and has a 90% approval rating with Republicans in the state.
The Mercy Rule
This event brings the rest of the GOP field to town, begging for attention and mercy. Joining Trump and DeSantis will be former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, US Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, author and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, conservative commentator Larry Elder, and Michigan businessman Perry Johnson.
Donald Trump (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
All candidates are scrambling to meet the Republican National Committee (RNC) rules to attend the August 23 debate stage, and anywhere Trump goes, the intelligent coat-tailer will follow. Among the criteria: “Poll at least 1% in three national polls OR 1% in two national polls and 1% in one early state poll from two separate ‘carve out’ states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina), have a minimum of 40,000 unique donors.”
For some, that automatically takes other qualified but lesser-known candidates off the debate stage, which is the best exposure available in the first place. A Catch-22.
Iowa in the Rearview Mirror?
Trump and DeSantis have been battling for attention since March, scheduling dueling events to make the electorate pick between them. And how Iowans choose could determine the primary; if DeSantis were to beat Trump, that could spell doom for 45. If Trump takes the Hawkeye state, however, it could be back to Florida for the governor. And so the GOP can’t quite stop the parade through the farm belt just yet. The Iowa State Fair is just before that crucial first debate, and even the faintest of hearts can pound a corn dog and a funnel cake with the locals for a vote.
