Understanding Trump’s Tariff War Gambit – And Why It Works

President Donald Trump made clear his intent to levy a tariff on goods coming into the United States unless and until his various domestic demands were met. Naturally, the legacy media and a number of politicos were aghast at the possibility that the commander-in-chief would be willing to wield such a weapon. After all, if getting other countries to accede to demands were so simple and without consequence, wouldn’t everyone be doing it?

It seems that the 47th president is in a unique position politically. And it is this stand-alone quality – what some may call isolationist – that allows him to succeed in the tariff war where other politicians might fail. There are at least three major factors in how and why Trump holds all the cards.

It’s America First, Not Globalism

Trump’s next election is currently scheduled for never o’clock. No matter what happens over the next four years, the odds of him ever running for any office ever again are practically zero. He is wealthy, presently in robust health, and the only thing left for him to do is cap his legacy.

One thing became apparent in the 2024 election: The Republican Party must answer to the Make America Great Again strain of conservatism. Trump has one more term to set in place a new normal and make it work; otherwise, his efforts may be undone. If the GOP is not along for the ride, he and his supporters are happy enough to leave it behind. Other presidents had to worry about how their respective parties would fare further down the line; this president is – for better or worse – unshackled. One might say he is unburdened by what has been.

And let’s not forget the princes and princesses of politics who see their positions on the world stage as a crowning glory. It became apparent in 2017 that Trump was none too interested in what other global leaders thought of his “isolationism.” Cooperation with supranational groups and globalist cabals necessarily results in compromise; his return to office at the head of a 77-million-strong battle cry demanded that his presidency represented only the interests of America, not the global agenda.

Tariff Hurt Baked In

International obligations aside, why were so few presidents open to wielding the power of tariffs? Part of the reason is because the imposition will – as Trump’s critics suggest – result in higher prices for certain goods on the home front. And this presents a conundrum for those very critics.

When the president announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, keyboards across the nation began framing the argument that this would hurt American consumers. The next step was that the countries in question would retaliate with reciprocal tariffs, thus harming US exporters. Nestled between these two valid points are two unspoken caveats.

First, if tariffs hurt the nation that imposes them, then retaliatory tariffs will also hurt the consumers in that country. Second, some politicians can weather the storm better than others.

Trump posted on social media: “WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!) … BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.” It was a bold statement that nullified the attacks on his course of action. He admitted that there would likely be fiscal pain but insisted that what comes out at the other end of the process will be worth the temporary drawback.

And here’s the thing. Rather than mollycoddle Americans, Trump appears to be treating them as fellow negotiators. That is a rarity in itself. He is asking them to consider what’s on offer -- secure borders, no more deadly drugs flooding in, and a rebirth in US manufacturing -- and to posit whether short-term price rises on some (not all) products are worth the trade. It’s a gamble that only a politician unconcerned with politics would make.

The Gorilla in the Room

Finally, the reason that the tariff war is eminently winnable for the US side is that America is the largest economy in the world. It seems that over the decades, Americans forgot that in terms of international power plays, bigger tends to be better. But why?

Well, part of the reason is this idea that one should not throw one’s weight around, that using “size” is the action of a bully, and that such behavior should never be used among friends. However, if size is used in defense to protect American workers and wallets, why should it be off the table?

Ultimately, the real secret of why these tariffs appear to be working could be that Trump is not actually interested in imposing tariffs at all. It seems that as long as the respective nations are comfortable with not getting in the way of the MAGA agenda and that they do their part to ensure American security in a reciprocal manner, tariffs can be easily avoided.

Colombia refused to take back its citizens who entered the US illegally, and the threat of tariffs resulted in that country's president sending his own plane to pick them up. Mexico demurred and complained about the tariffs but then bought a month-long reprieve on the understanding that 10,000 Mexican troops would be sent to the border to stop the flow of drugs. Canada had a call with Trump and brokered a 30-day tariff delay with promises to appoint a fentanyl czar to address the drug crisis and crack down on illegal immigrants crossing the northern border into the United States. While economists can debate the effects of tariffs on the nation's wallets, the mere threat of them, wielded by a leader concerned only with results, not reelection, appears to be working.