MARK ANGELIDES
After the shocking defeat of the Obamacare repeal, President Donald Trump has decided to do away with the niceties and play hardball with Congress. With such a narrow defeat, he is aware that pressure needs to be applied in only a few areas, and the best people on which to exert this pressure are their peers.
The president took to Twitter on Saturday to not only show his displeasure but also to set the ball rolling on a smart and “heavy-pressure” maneuver to get the votes he needs. He clearly stated that the bailouts are going to end for both Insurers AND Members of Congress.
This is the beginning of a negotiating war that (if he is bold enough) Mr. Trump cannot lose. Here’s how it will play out:
The first step is to sign an executive order stating that Insurance providers will no longer receive government bailouts for shortfalls. He will cite “anticompetitive” laws.
When the inevitable pushback begins, he will start a full media campaign telling the public how much of their tax dollars are being spent to support “big business” when they could be spent on “social projects.” The objectors will not want to be seen as on the side of big business over the taxpayer.
The Insurers will begin to pull out of the market for financial reasons leaving states with a greater burden and many more uninsured (mostly low income and Hispanics). Pressure will begin to build at a local level.
Congress will ask for “fig leaf " for a cloak of respectability changes -- and then vote again.
The essence of this negotiating tactic is that the president will be pitting the people against a Congress whose only argument is that “we must continue to give your money to the Big Businesses.” The possibility of losing their seats in the next election cycle is too high a risk for them to take, so they’ll fold.
The reality is that President Trump has a mandate for this. And if he works it right, the Democrats will have to support him. Consider this from their position. Under Obamacare:
4 million are ineligible for coverage due to immigration status.
6 million fall into the coverage gap where they do not meet state Medicaid eligibility requirements and earn too little to qualify for ACA subsidies
40% of all uninsured people are Hispanic.
To put it bluntly, the people who are most unable to work with Obamacare are the immigrants and the poor. If the Democrats don’t fall into line, their voter base will take some sharp cuts.
Check out this video for further analysis:
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