Rasmussen Reports is known for telling it like it is. The polling company understands that many variables determine a voter’s choice for president. Thus, its survey this week on voter trust is worth considering.
Issues that Matter Most
A study published by the Pew Research Center on August 13 regarding issues that matter most to voters adds context to the Rasmussen poll. The economy, as usual, topped the list of voters’ concerns. Next in line are worries over health care. The ability to nominate the next Supreme Court justice comes in third, the Coronavirus outbreak is fourth, and violent crime fifth. One must drop down to 11th place before the topic of climate change pops up. Last, but not least, lies the subject of abortion.
Rasmussen’s new survey, conducted by phone and online, unsurprisingly put President Trump in the lead regarding the economy – 49% to Biden’s 46%. Breaking that number down further, the president has a nine-point lead over his challenger among voters not “affiliated with either major party.”
Rasmussen noted one rather interesting development: Former Vice President Biden is trusted more on the issue of public safety – 48% to Mr. Trump’s 46%. Voters say the nation is more divided than during the Obama years – but this poll indicates, “a Trump defeat in November will make the division even worse.”
Mr. Biden leads the president by a wide margin when it comes to voter trust regarding the environment. Although, as Pew noted, this will not be a significant issue in the 2020 contest. On the topic of immigration, Biden wins over Trump by only 1%. However – much like the subject of the environment – the Pew study illustrates that border issues are not foremost in people’s minds this election cycle.
The Democratic nominee won four of the five trust categories in the Rasmussen poll, but when it comes to the big kahuna – the economy – likely voters prefer President Trump. So, as the survey headlined, “Trump, Biden Earn Near Equal Voter Trust on Most Major Issues.”
White House Watch See-Saw
Each week Rasmussen also publishes a poll of 2,500 likely voters in a national head to head Trump/Biden match up. Again, the Democratic challenger has held the lead since the survey began this summer, but there appears to be a see-saw effect. Last week it was Biden 46% and Trump 45%. This week the Democrat has opened a four-point lead on the president. Those in the undecided category may be swinging toward Biden as there only remain 3% who can’t seem to make up their mind as to who they want to be the next POTUS. In previous surveys, the undecided category held steady at about 4% to 6%.
Where the president needed to make a significant gain was with women, and it appears the Republican National Convention was able to help him in that area. This week 3% more women checked the box for Mr. Trump than last week. The crosstab that has the most people scratching their heads is the black voter. At one point, the president posted as much as 30% in this demographic. This week he’s down to 20% but should anywhere near that number of blacks choose the president over challenger Biden on election day, Democrats will have to pull a rabbit out of their hat to win.
Read more from Leesa K. Donner.