The Candidates’ Market Report
President Trump’s approval rating drops one point this week. Whether this is due to the airtime given to Democrat candidate debates or to polling signifying a drop in support for Trump himself remains to be seen. However, if we take a historical look at Barack Obama’s polling during the same point in his presidency, this doesn’t necessarily mean a poor turnout for Donald Trump; Obama was polling at 44-45% at this point.
The interesting figure this week is that Congressional approval has gone from bad to worse. Despite polling worse than used car salesmen, the hallowed House continues to sink. Losing two points, this is the first major drop after a steady several months at 18%. Notably, it is House Democrats who seem to be taking the hardest hits.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 46% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 16% ( – 2% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 15/8
- Joe Biden – 11/4
- Bernie Sanders – 6/1
- Kamala Harris – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 14/1
- Andrew Yang – 14/1
There has not been much change in the top-tier positions this week, but the outlier field is still shifting. Last week saw South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg lose a massive seven and a half points, putting him firmly out of the running. This week, he took a further hit, slipping from 13/2 to a disappointing 14/1.
Andrew Yang managed to claw back two points in a move that appears to be bucking the trend. Beto O’Rourke, after announcing that he intended to implement firearms “buy-back” scheme that he insisted people would “comply” with, saw his cash-bettor polling drop to 40/1.
- Donald Trump – EVS
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Bernie Sanders – 11/1
- Kamala Harris – 16/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 33/1
- Cory Booker – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 100/1
The real story this week was the effective end of Kamala Harris’ campaign to be president. Although her betting odds remained at 16/1, national and regional polling gave her some heavy hits. In all recent polling, Harris failed to break into the top three spots, in many cases having just half the support of the third position candidate.
What previously looked like an almost guaranteed VP offer is no longer quite so certain. The top-tier candidates, Biden, Warren, and Sanders, will have a tough sell to the DNC who are looking for at least one “less white” face to pitch to intersectionally-minded voters. Kamala Harris has failed to ignite the electorate and may need to start facing up to a harsh reality: Her campaign is over.
- Impeachment – 2/9
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump to deport Madonna – 80/1
- Trump & Putin to take a vacation together during Donald’s 1st Presidential term – 125/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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