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The Candidates’ Market Report
This is a rocky week for Congress. The latest polling from YouGov gives congressional approval at only 14%. This could be from one of two factors, or perhaps both combined. First, there appears to be a “liberal revolt” over the upcoming border bill that places Congress in direct opposition to the majority of voters. Second, individuals within Congress are not covering themselves in glory. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) recently compared holding centers for migrants to concentration camps and insinuated that those who oppose open borders are basically Nazis. How much longer will the electorate put up with shenanigans like this?
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 49% ( + 1% )
- Congress – 18% ( – 2% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 9/4
- Pete Buttigieg – 5/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/1
- Kamala Harris – 11/2
- Bernie Sanders – 6/1
- Andrew Yang – 14/1
Frontrunner Joe Biden takes a half point hit this week, likely due to his connections with southern segregationist Democrats that have been “unearthed.” His old comments stating that abortion is not a “right” have almost certainly hurt him with voters who view abortion as one of the key issues impacting Americans.
Both Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg have jumped a few spots on the leaderboard this week. However, Mayor Pete’s campaign is being dogged every step of the way by protestors over his handling of race relations in the South Bend PD … It’s difficult to see how he can survive. Warren, on the other hand, is going from strength to strength. She’s sticking to policy and appears to be poised to take over if the Biden campaign implodes.
Bernie has dropped from the number-two spot to 6/1. But these numbers could all change following the Democrat Debates on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Donald Trump – Even
- Joe Biden – 9/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/1
- Kamala Harris – 10/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 10/1
- Bernie Sanders – 11/1
- Andrew Yang – 22/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 33/1
- Cory Booker – 35/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 35/1
- Mitt Romney – 45/1
- Kirsten Gillibrand – 100/1
- Eric Swalwell – 275/1
While President Trump maintains his even money lead, Joe Biden drops half a point. The other big hitters, Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg have all closed the gap and Bernie Sanders has dropped from 3rd to 6th. The most interesting news is that there appears to be a leading pack breaking away from the rest of the Democrat field. Booker and O’Rourke are both over 30 to 1 and without a major announcement or a stunning performance in the debates, their campaigns are effectively over.
Eric Swalwell dropped a further 100 points down to 275 to 1. For those who like a longshot bet, the returns would be superb.
- Impeachment – 1/4
- Resignation – 6/1
Trump to withdraw the US from the UN – 7/1
- Trump to ban the burka or hijab – 9/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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