The Kremlin is not in the catbird seat. Russia's President Vladimir Putin appears to be dragging his feet about a ceasefire in Ukraine, and that's unlikely to turn out well for him. Whatever leverage he may have thought he had is fleeting. Making demands and holding out for a better negotiating position may not be the best course of action.
Is Putin Playing Trump?
President Donald Trump, who set in motion the delicate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, is not a patient man. If he thinks the Moscow leader is playing him, his displeasure will be crystal clear. In fact, according to a Reuters report, "US President Donald Trump said on Sunday [March 30] he was 'pissed off' at Russian President Vladimir Putin and will impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine."
While negotiations have hit an impasse, Russia continues to attack Ukraine. "Russian ballistic missile strikes hit the center of Sumy 'on Palm Sunday, as people were on their way to church,' according to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. The strikes killed at least 34 people and injured 117— including a female infant born earlier in the year," the Daily Caller reported.
Despite Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's denial of the attack targeting civilians, the results speak for themselves. Trying to deflect the criticism of purposefully targeting civilians, Peskov said, "Russia's military only strikes military targets. Russia's Defense Ministry said the strike targeted a gathering of senior military officers and accused Kyiv of using civilians as shields by holding military meetings in the city's center," according to the Associated Press. No one is buying that. Putin shows little interest in ending the killing. He seems to be stalling, and that does not sit well with President Trump.
The European community immediately criticized Putin for the attack on Sumy, saying it demonstrated Moscow's lack of seriousness in achieving an end to the fighting: "For foreign ministers, the barrage demonstrates Vladimir Putin has no interest in pursuing the peace negotiations promoted by Donald Trump," euronews.com observed. European countries are calling for stiffer sanctions against Russia.
If Putin is calculating territory concessions, Russian forces are not helping. As TWZ explained, "Despite the increase in clashes across the front lines, Russia is not making major gains in Kharkiv,” said Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine's Main Director of Intelligence. “Even in Donetsk, Russia doesn't have the means to achieve significant advances." While Putin sounds as though he wants to pursue a pause in the fighting, his demands going into talks are unrealistic.
Putin has used the specious charge that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is an illegitimate leader, and he and his government must be replaced. "'Under the auspices of the United Nations, with the United States, even with European countries, and, of course, with our partners and friends, we could discuss the possibility of introduction of temporary governance in Ukraine,' Putin said," the Associated Press explained. Of course, relying on the United Nations would be just what the Russians would want – a feckless gesture giving Moscow the upper hand in any UN-brokered outcome. That is not going to happen.
Trump Has Plays, Too
Motivating Putin to accept a pause in the conflict may require what Trump has threatened to do: cripple Russia economically with secondary sanctions. That would involve the United States imposing economic penalties on other countries doing business with Russia. For example, the White House could target nations trading in Russian goods, like oil or gas, and impose fines, asset freezes, or trade restrictions.
One of the most obvious economic tools Trump could employ is squeezing the Russian oil trade by targeting Putin’s shadow fleet (ships used to evade oil sanctions) and enforcing price caps on the country’s oil at third-nation off-load ports, such as those in China or India. The objective is to choke Russia's economy indirectly by discouraging global trade partners without direct US-Russia confrontation. Critics say this might drive Russia's allies into a closer relationship with Moscow. That's possible, but they would be poorer for the effort.
Putin needs to understand he is not in as enviable a military, economic, or geopolitical position as he might wish. If Trump believes he must take more dramatic action to persuade Putin to enter ceasefire talks, he will.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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