The Candidates’ Market Report
With President Trump’s approval rating not swinging more than two points either way in recent months, his trajectory and path appear to be almost a mirror image of former President Barack Obama’s rating at the same time in his presidency. Does this mean that there is little difference in the “divisiveness factor” between the two men, or that America goes strictly along party lines?
The same can’t be said for Chuck Schumer or Mitch McConnell, who have both been sinking in the polls as they fail to ignite the public. Nancy Pelosi, on the other hand, appears untouchable despite the recent fire and fury; she is sitting pretty on 37% and has shown almost no movement either up or down for the last 6 months.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 48% ( – 2% )
- Congress – 18% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Kamala Harris – 21/10
- Elizabeth Warren – 3/1
- Joe Biden – 3/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 15/2
- Bernie Sanders – 15/2
- Andrew Yang – 13/1
Kamala Harris has dropped half a point at the expense of Elizabeth Warren who has gained by the same amount; likely due to Warren’s energy on the campaign trail and Harris’ refusal to put forward policy proposals. Joe Biden has closed the gap with Warren, both of them sitting on 3/1; it seems that the “bussing” scandal has failed to stick and his polling remains strong across many states.
Monmouth, Fox, and Morning Consult polls all give Biden a healthy lead over Trump.
Both Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are slowly slipping away from the limelight dropping points to the top three contenders. At 15/2, it is not out of the realms of possibility that either candidate could make a come-back, but the odds are thinning.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 5/6
- Kamala Harris – 9/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 6/1
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 14/1
- Bernie Sanders – 14/1
- Andrew Yang – 25/1
- Cory Booker – 30/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 30/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 30/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 40/1
Breaking the month-long Even money position, Donald Trump has now shortened the odds on winning in 2020 to 5/6 while Kamala Harris slips half a point down to 9/2. In fact, every single major Democrat has lost an edge this week except for Joe Biden who gained half a point.
Surprisingly, Tulsi Gabbard has now entered the frontrunner field. Sliding in at 30/1, the outsider now has more chance than Beto O’Rourke of becoming president. Marianne Williamson is a long, long shot on 500/1.
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/6
- Resignation – 1/12
- To have his likeness minted on US currency during his term – 100/1
- Trump to publish the precise dimensions of his hands to his Twitter account- 50/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides or comment on this article at LibertyNation.com.
